Develop an Exponential Smoothing forecast for $2004$ to $2013.$ Use

$=0\mathrm{.}3.$ Make the

appropriate assumption regarding the forecast for $2004.$ Calculate the MSE $($using

errors from $2005$ through $2013)$ and Tracking Signal for this forecast.

Develop a Na$$ve forecast for $2005$ to $2013.$ Calculate the MSE $($using errors from

$2005$ through $2013)$ and Tracking Signal for this forecast.

Question $2$:

What is your forecast $($from the Exponential Smoothing method$)$ for $2004?$

a$.48\mathrm{.}3$

b$.47\mathrm{.}3$

c$.46\mathrm{.}8$

d$.$ None of the above