DIGB$337$ Assignment #$2$

The table below summarizes the number of calls received each day over the last $13$ weeks, starting from the $44$th week of last year to the $5$th week of this year.

$(*$ The days where no calls were received were holidays!$)$

MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY

WEEK $441130851859828726$

WEEK $4510851042892840799$

WEEK $4613031121100311131005$

WEEK $4726522825184100$

WEEK $48194915079899901084$

WEEK $4912601134941847714$

WEEK $501002847922842784$

WEEK $5182300401429$

WEEK $52/1120983001082841$

WEEK $213621174967930853$

WEEK $39249541346904758$

WEEK $4886878802945610$

WEEK $5910754705729772$

Using Excel, answer the questions below.

Your report should include the following items:

$-$ A brief description of what you performed in Excel.

$-$ Screenshots of the Excel work performed.

$-$ Answers to the questions.

a$.$ What is the day$-$by$-$day seasonally adjusted call volume for the past $13$ weeks?

b$.$ Using the seasonally adjusted call volume, forecast the daily demand for the next week $($week $6)$ using the last$-$value forecasting method.

c$.$ Using the seasonally adjusted call volume, forecast the daily demand for the next week $($week $6)$ using the moving$-$average forecasting method. You decide to use the five most recent days in this analysis.

d$.$ Using the seasonally adjusted call volume, forecast the daily demand for the next week $($week $6)$ using the exponential smoothing forecasting method. You decide to use a smoothing constant of $0\mathrm{.}1.$ Use the Last$-$value method for the initial estimation.

e$.$ After one week, the period you have forecasted passes. You realize that you are able to determine the accuracy of your forecasts because you now have the actual call volumes from the week you had forecasted. The actual call volumes are shown below. What are the forecasting errors $($MAD$,$ MSE$)$ for each forecasting method for week $6?$

MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY

WEEK $6723677521571498$