(a) Piot the data on U.S. general aviation shipments. Plot A Plot B US Aviation Shiaments...

       

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(a) Piot the data on U.S. general aviation shipments. Plot A Plot B US Aviation Shiaments (1984 2015) Menufactured General US Aviatiun Shipments (1984-2015) Manufactured Genersl U.S. Manufactured General Aviation Shipnents, 1984-2016 Planes 2,228 2,251 2,215 2,364 2,402 2,836 3,487 3,791 Year Planes Year Year PLanes Year Planes 1984 3,718 3,316 2,782 2,372 2,499 2,822 2,431 2,308 1992 4,103 3,921 3,494 3,424 3,642 4,144 4,434 4,566 4,366 2,872 2,621 2,610 2,803 2,902 2,918 2,879 2000 2008 2009 1985 1993 2001 1986 1994 2002 2010 1987 1995 2003 2011 1988 1996 2004 2012 1989 1997 2005 2013 1990 1998 2006 2014 1991 1999 2007 2015 Plot A US Aviation Shipments (1984-2015) 5000 4500 4000 Manufactured General 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 Plot B 1984 1986 1988 3500 US Aviation Shipments (1984-2015) 3000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2500 Manufactured General 2000 2002 2004 1500 2006 2008 2010 1000 500 2012 2014 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 3500 Plot B US Aviation Shipments (1984-2015) 3000 2500 Manufactured General 2000 1500 1000 500 Plot C US Aviation Shipments (1984-2015) 1984 1986 3500 1988 1990 1992 3000 2500 Manufactured General 1994 1996 2000 1998 2000 2002 1500 2004 2006 1000 2008 2010 2012 500 2014 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Plot C US Aviation Shipments (1984-2015) 500 000 500 Manufactured General 000 500 000 500 1984 1986 Plot D US Aviation Shipments (1984-2015) 3500 1988 1990 1992 3000 2500 Manufactured General 1994 1996 2000 1998 2000 2002 1500 2004 2006 1000 2008 2010 2012 500 2014 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 (b) Describe the pattern and discuss possible causes. Hint: What economic factors affect major capital investments? (You may select more than one answer. Click the box with a check mark for the correct answer and double click to empty the box for the wrong answer.) The factors affecting major capital Investments: Business cycles Interest rates 2 Foreign demend 2 Forecasting (c) Would a fitted trend be helpful? Explain. No there is no clear trend over the past 30 years. (d) Fit a moving average (e.g., period 2) to the data. Is it useful? Yes a two year or three year moving average would be an acceptable ]forecasting method for this time series. (e) Make a forecast for 2016 using a method of your choice (including a judgment forecast). Justify your method. (Round your answer to the nearest whole number.) The two year moving average forecast for 2016 i (a) Piot the data on U.S. general aviation shipments. Plot A Plot B US Aviation Shiaments (1984 2015) Menufactured General US Aviatiun Shipments (1984-2015) Manufactured Genersl U.S. Manufactured General Aviation Shipnents, 1984-2016 Planes 2,228 2,251 2,215 2,364 2,402 2,836 3,487 3,791 Year Planes Year Year PLanes Year Planes 1984 3,718 3,316 2,782 2,372 2,499 2,822 2,431 2,308 1992 4,103 3,921 3,494 3,424 3,642 4,144 4,434 4,566 4,366 2,872 2,621 2,610 2,803 2,902 2,918 2,879 2000 2008 2009 1985 1993 2001 1986 1994 2002 2010 1987 1995 2003 2011 1988 1996 2004 2012 1989 1997 2005 2013 1990 1998 2006 2014 1991 1999 2007 2015 Plot A US Aviation Shipments (1984-2015) 5000 4500 4000 Manufactured General 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 Plot B 1984 1986 1988 3500 US Aviation Shipments (1984-2015) 3000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2500 Manufactured General 2000 2002 2004 1500 2006 2008 2010 1000 500 2012 2014 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 3500 Plot B US Aviation Shipments (1984-2015) 3000 2500 Manufactured General 2000 1500 1000 500 Plot C US Aviation Shipments (1984-2015) 1984 1986 3500 1988 1990 1992 3000 2500 Manufactured General 1994 1996 2000 1998 2000 2002 1500 2004 2006 1000 2008 2010 2012 500 2014 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Plot C US Aviation Shipments (1984-2015) 500 000 500 Manufactured General 000 500 000 500 1984 1986 Plot D US Aviation Shipments (1984-2015) 3500 1988 1990 1992 3000 2500 Manufactured General 1994 1996 2000 1998 2000 2002 1500 2004 2006 1000 2008 2010 2012 500 2014 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 (b) Describe the pattern and discuss possible causes. Hint: What economic factors affect major capital investments? (You may select more than one answer. Click the box with a check mark for the correct answer and double click to empty the box for the wrong answer.) The factors affecting major capital Investments: Business cycles Interest rates 2 Foreign demend 2 Forecasting (c) Would a fitted trend be helpful? Explain. No there is no clear trend over the past 30 years. (d) Fit a moving average (e.g., period 2) to the data. Is it useful? Yes a two year or three year moving average would be an acceptable ]forecasting method for this time series. (e) Make a forecast for 2016 using a method of your choice (including a judgment forecast). Justify your method. (Round your answer to the nearest whole number.) The two year moving average forecast for 2016 i