Bob claims to have ESP. To test this claim, you propose the following experiment. You will...

 

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Bob claims to have ESP. To test this claim, you propose the following experiment. You will select one card from four large cards with different geometric figures, and Bob will try to identify it. Let p denote the prob- ability that Bob is correct in identifying the figure for a single card. You believe that Bob has no ESP ability (p = .25), but there is a small chance that p is either larger or smaller than .25. After some thought, you place the following prior distribution on p: 0 .125 .250.375 .500 .625 .750 .875 1 g(p) .001|.001.950 .008 .008.008 .008|.008.008 Suppose that the experiment is repeated ten times and Bob is correct six times and incorrect four times. Using the function pdisc, find the posterior probabilities of these values of p. What is your posterior probability that Bob has no ESP ability? Bob claims to have ESP. To test this claim, you propose the following experiment. You will select one card from four large cards with different geometric figures, and Bob will try to identify it. Let p denote the prob- ability that Bob is correct in identifying the figure for a single card. You believe that Bob has no ESP ability (p = .25), but there is a small chance that p is either larger or smaller than .25. After some thought, you place the following prior distribution on p: 0 .125 .250.375 .500 .625 .750 .875 1 g(p) .001|.001.950 .008 .008.008 .008|.008.008 Suppose that the experiment is repeated ten times and Bob is correct six times and incorrect four times. Using the function pdisc, find the posterior probabilities of these values of p. What is your posterior probability that Bob has no ESP ability?

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