Exercise on Forecasting Exercise Question 1 John is responsible for coming up with a forecast of the number of visitors to Metro Zoo. He has gathered the following data on the number of visitors over the last seven weeks: Week Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Visitors 620 730 880 700 830 1,020 900 Based on the data above, what is John's forecast of the number of visitors for week 8 using each of the following methods? a) Nave forecast. b) A three-period moving average c) A five-week weighted moving average using a weight of 0.3 for t-1 (i.e., one period before), 0.25 for t-2 (i.e., two periods before), 0.2 for t-3 (i.e., three periods before), 0.15 for t-4 (i.e., four periods before) and 0.1 for t-5 (i.e., five periods before). d) An Exponential Smoothing method, assuming that the forecast for week 5 was 900, using a value of 0.3 for a. Exercise Question 2 Based on the data shown in the table below, Calculate the forecasting performance measures using the following methods. [Show all your calculations and put each of your final answers in the box in front of each method]. Period A F 1 54 58 2 47 56 3 50 52 4 42 51 Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)= Mean Squared Error (MSE)= INI Mean absolute percent error (MAPE) =