Question: An investor is deciding between two investments When the economy has declined, an adviser has given a rosy forecast 50% ofthe time (gloomy forecast


An investor is deciding between two investments When the economy has declined, an adviser has given a rosy forecast 50% ofthe time (gloomy forecast 50% ofthe time) When the economy has not changed, the adviser has given a rosy forecast 70% ofthe time When the economy has expanded, the adviser has given a rosy forecast 60% of the time. The adviser gives a gloomy forecast. Complete parts (a) through (k). O Click the icon to view the payoff table and probabilities for each economic condition. a. Revise the probabilities of the investor based on this economic forecast by the adviser. Based on these revised probabilities, answer (b) through (k). P(economy declineslgloomy)- 0.5 P(no changelgloomy) 0.3 P(economy expandslgloomy) (Round to three decimal places as needed.) b. Determine the optimal action based on the maximax criterion. Choose the correct answer below Investment a is the optimal action because its minimum payoff is greater than investment A's minimum payoff. Investment A is the optimal action because its maximum payoff is greater than investment 8's maximum payoff Investment A is the optimal action because its minimum payoff is greater than investment 8's minimum payoff. t' D. Investment a is the optimal action because its maximum payoff is greater than investment A's maximum payoff c. Determine the optimal action based on the maximin criterion. Choose the correct answer below. Investment A is the optimal action because its maximum payoff is greater than investment 8's maximum payoff Investment a is the optimal action because its maximum payoff is greater than investment A's maximum payoff Investment a is the optimal action because its minimum payoff is greater than investment A's minimum payoff. t' D. Investment A is the optimal action because its minimum payoff is greater than investment 8's minimum payoff. d. Compute the expected monetary value (EMV) for each investment. (Simplify pur answers) Payoff table and probabilities Investment Selection Event Economy declines No change Economy expands 400 2,000 3,000 -1,000 1,000 6,000 Based on his own experience, the investor assigns the probabilities shown below to each economic condition. P(Economy declines) = 0.4 P(No change) = 04 P(Economy expands) - 02 print Done
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