Following are the data on demand for white bread loaves at a bakery.

Day	Loaves
1	196
2	206
3	217
4	233
5	232
6	231
7	243
8	258
9	257
10	263
11	277
12	276
13	282
14	295
15	306

a. Develop a linear trend equation for the above data on demand for white bread loaves at a bakery (use of Excels Trendline, with display Equation on chart option, is recommended), and use it to forecast demand on day 16. (Round the final answers to 2 decimal places.)

Y = x +

Forecast demand on day 16

b. The variations around the linear trend line seem to have above- and below-the-line runs. Therefore, use trend-adjusted exponential smoothing with = 0.2 and = 0.1 to model the bread demand. Use the first four days to estimate the smoothed initial trend that you use for periods 4 and 5 (use the increase from day 1 to day 4 divided by 3). Also, use A₄ to estimate S₄. Start forecasting day 5. What is the forecast for day 16? (Round the final answers to 2 decimal places.)