For the data given below, forecast period $17$ using following methods and suggest the best forecasting model

$1.$ Simple Moving Average $($Three Period$)$

$2.$ Weighted Average $(50\%$ on t$-1,30\%$ on t$-2,20\%$ on t$-3)$

$3.$ Exponential Smoothing $(\backslash$alpha $=\mathrm{.}1),$ F$1=$ y intercept from regression$)$

$4.$ Exponential Smoothing $(\backslash$alpha $=\mathrm{.}3),$ F$1=$ y intercept from regression$)$

$5.$ Exponential Smoothing with trend $(\backslash$alpha $=\mathrm{.}3)$ and $(\backslash$delta $=\mathrm{.}3),$ F$1=$ y intercept from regression$)**$

$6.$ Exponential Smoothing with trend $(\backslash$alpha $=\mathrm{.}1)$ and $(\backslash$delta $=\mathrm{.}3),$ F$1=$ y intercept from regression$)**$

$7.$ Regression analysis

$8.$ Plot a single graph representing actual sales and all of the above forecastined sales.

$9.$ Calculate MAD, MSE and MAPE. Suggest which of the above method is most accurate.

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