For the data given below, forecast period 17 using following methods and suggest the best forecasting model

1. Simple Moving Average (Three Period)

2. Weighted Average (50% on t-1, 30% on t-2, 20% on t-3)

3. Exponential Smoothing (=.1), F1= y intercept from regression)

4. Exponential Smoothing (=.3), F1= y intercept from regression)

5. Exponential Smoothing with trend (=.3) and (=.3), F1= y intercept from regression)**

5. Exponential Smoothing with trend (=.1) and (=.3), F1= y intercept from regression)**

6. Regression analysis

7. Plot a single graph representing actual sales and all of the above forecastined sales.

8. Calculate MAD, MSE and MAPE. Suggest which of the above method is most accurate.

**When initial trend forecast (T1) is not given, use slope of the regression line as initial trend.

Year	Quarter	Period	Sales
		0
1	I	1	98
	II	2	106
	III	3	109
	IV	4	133
2	I	5	130
	II	6	116
	III	7	133
	IV	8	116
3	I	9	138
	II	10	130
	III	11	147
	IV	12	141
4	I	13	144
	II	14	142
	III	15	165
	IV	16	173
5	I	17