Question: Forecasting and Estimating Share Value Using the DCF Model Following are the income statement and balance sheet for Intel Corporation. INTEL CORPORATION Consolidated Statements of
Forecasting and Estimating Share Value Using the DCF Model Following are the income statement and balance sheet for Intel Corporation.
| INTEL CORPORATION Consolidated Statements of Income | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Years Ended December (In Millions, Except Per Share Amounts) | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
| Net revenue | $ 53,341 | $ 53,999 | $ 46,623 |
| Cost of sales | 20,190 | 20,242 | 15,132 |
| Gross margin | 33,151 | 33,757 | 28,491 |
| Research and development | 10,148 | 8,350 | 6,576 |
| Marketing, general and adminstrative | 8,057 | 7,670 | 6,309 |
| Amortization of acquisition-related intangibles | 308 | 260 | 18 |
| Operating expenses | 18,513 | 16,280 | 12,903 |
| Operating income | 14,638 | 17,477 | 15,588 |
| Gains (losses) on other equity investments, net | 141 | 112 | 348 |
| Interest and other, net | 94 | 192 | 109 |
| Income before taxes | 14,873 | 17,781 | 16,045 |
| Provisions for taxes | 3,868 | 4,839 | 4,581 |
| Net income | $ 11,005 | $ 12,942 | $ 11,464 |
| INTEL CORPORATION Consolidated Balance Sheets | ||
|---|---|---|
| As of Year-Ended (In millions, except par value) | Dec. 29, 2012 | Dec. 31, 2011 |
| Assets | ||
| Current assets | ||
| Cash and cash equivalents | $ 8,478 | $ 5,065 |
| Short-term investments | 3,999 | 5,181 |
| Trading assets | 5,685 | 4,591 |
| Accounts receivables, net | 3,833 | 3,650 |
| Inventories | 4,734 | 4,096 |
| Deferred tax assets | 2,117 | 1,700 |
| Other current assets | 2,512 | 1,589 |
| Total current assets | 31,358 | 25,872 |
| Property, plant and equipment, net | 27,983 | 23,627 |
| Marketable equity securities | 4,424 | 562 |
| Other long-term investments** | 493 | 889 |
| Goodwill | 9,710 | 9,254 |
| Identified intangible assets | 6,235 | 6,267 |
| Other long-term assets | 4,148 | 4,648 |
| Total assets | $84,351 | $71,119 |
| Liabilities | ||
| Currnet liabilities | ||
| Short-term debt | $312 | $247 |
| Accounts payable | 3,023 | 2,956 |
| Accrued compensation and benefits | 2,972 | 2,948 |
| Accrued advertising | 1,015 | 1,134 |
| Deferred income | 1,932 | 1,929 |
| Other accrued liabilities | 3,644 | 2,814 |
| Total current liabilities | 12,898 | 12,028 |
| Long-term debt | 13,136 | 7,084 |
| Long-term deferred tax liabilities | 3,412 | 2,617 |
| Other long-term liabilities | 3,702 | 3,479 |
| Stockholders' equity | ||
| Preferred stock, $0.001 par value, 50 shares authorized; none issued | -- | -- |
| Common stock, $0.001 par value, 10,000 shares authorized; 4,944 issued and outstanding (5,000 issued and outstanding in 2011) and capital in excess of par value | 19,464 | 17,036 |
| Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) | (399) | (781) |
| Retained earnings | 32,138 | 29,656 |
| Total stockholders' equity | 51,203 | 45,911 |
| Total liabilities and stockholders' equity | $ 84,351 | $ 71,119 |
** These investments are operating assets as they relate to associated companies. (a) Compute Intel's net operating assets (NOA) for year-end 2012. 2012 NOA = $Answer (b) Compute net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) for 2012, assuming a federal and state statutory tax rate of 37%.(Round your answer to the nearest whole number.) 2012 NOPAT = $Answer (c) Forecast Intel's sales, NOPAT, and NOA for years 2013 through 2016 using the following assumptions:
| Sales growth | 10% |
| Net operating profit margin (NOPM) | 20.4% |
| Net operating asset turnover (NOAT) at year-end | 1.27 |
Forecast the terminal period value using a terminal period growth of: 1% and the NOPM and NOAT assumptions above.
| INTC | Reported | Forecast Horizon | Terminal | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($ millions) | 2012 | 2013 Est. | 2014 Est. | 2015 Est. | 2016 Est. | Period |
| Sales (rounded two decimal places) | $Answer | $Answer | $Answer | $Answer | $Answer | $Answer |
| Sales (rounded nearest whole number) | Answer | Answer | Answer | Answer | Answer | Answer |
| NOPAT (rounded nearest whole number)* | Answer | Answer | Answer | Answer | Answer | Answer |
| NOA (rounded nearest whole number)* | Answer | Answer | Answer | Answer | Answer | Answer |
* Use sales rounded to nearest whole number for this calculation.
(d) Estimate the value of a share of Intel common stock using the discounted cash flow (DCF) model as of December 29, 2012; assume a discount rate (WACC) of 11%, common shares outstanding of 4,944 million, and net nonoperating obligations (NNO) of $(9,138) million (NNO is negative which means that Intel has net nonoperating investments). Use your rounded answers for subsequent calculations.
| INTC | Reported | Forecast Horizon | Terminal | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($ millions) | 2012 | 2013 Est. | 2014 Est. | 2015 Est. | 2016 Est. | Period |
| DCF Model | ||||||
| Increase in NOA (rounded to nearest whole number) | Answer | Answer | Answer | Answer | Answer | |
| FCFF (NOPAT - Increase in NOA) | Answer | Answer | Answer | Answer | Answer | |
| Discount factor (rounded to 5 decimal places) | Answer | Answer | Answer | Answer | ||
| Present value of horizon FCFF (rounded to nearest whole number) | Answer | Answer | Answer | Answer | ||
| Cum present value of horizon FCFF | $Answer | (rounded to nearest whole number) | ||||
| Present value of terminal FCFF | Answer | (rounded to nearest whole number) | ||||
| Total firm value | Answer | (rounded to nearest whole number) | ||||
| Plus negative NNO | Answer | (enter as negative number) | ||||
| Firm equity value | $Answer | (rounded to nearest whole number) | ||||
| Shares outstanding (millions) | Answer | (rounded to nearest whole number) | ||||
| Stock price per share | $Answer | (rounded to two decimal places) | ||||
(e) Intel (INTC) stock closed at $21.09 on February 19, 2013, the date the Form 10-K was filed with the SEC. How does your valuation estimate compare with this closing price? What do you believe are some reasons for the difference? What investment decision is suggested from your results? (Select all that apply) Answeryesno Our stock price estimate is higher than the INTC market price as of February 19, 2013, indicating that we believe the stock is undervalued. Answeryesno Stock prices are a function of expected NOPAT and NOA, as well as the WACC discount rate. Answernoyes Our lower stock price estimate may be due to more pessimistic forecasts or a higher discount rate compared to other investors' and analysts model assumptions. Answernoyes Our higher stock price estimate may be due to more optimistic forecasts or a lower discount rate compared to other investors' and analysts model assumptions.
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