Forecasting Assignment $$ use Excel to graph and calculate forecasts

Problem #$1$

Over the past three months the demand for product XYZ has been $255,219$ and $231$ units. Calculate the three$-$month moving average forecast for month $4.$

If the actual demand in month $4$ is $228,$ what will be the forecast for month $5?$

Month

Demand

Forecast

$1$

$255$

$2$

$219$

$3$

$231$

Problem #$2$

Given the following data:

Month

Actual Demand

$1$

$67$

$2$

$75$

$3$

$43$

$4$

$50$

$5$

$77$

$6$

$65$

A$.$ Graph the actual sales for the first $6$ months

B$.$ Calculate a three$-$month moving average for months $4,5,6,$ and $7$

Problem #$3$

Given the data shown below, calculate the MAD and explain what it means.

Time Period

Forecast Sales

Actual Sales

Absolute Deviation

$1$

$96$

$105$

$2$

$97$

$94$

$3$

$98$

$100$

$4$

$99$

$109$

$5$

$101$

$92$

$6$

$100$

$101$

Problem #$4$

Given the data below and an exponential smoothing value of k $=\mathrm{.}25,$ calculate the forecast for period #$6.$

Time Period

Forecast Sales

Actual Sales

$1$

$90$

$80$

$2$

$105$

$100$

$3$

$125$

$120$

$4$

$135$

$140$

$5$

$155$

$160$

$6$

$?$

$?$