Hello,

I need help with these questions.

Please use R studio to answer them. thanks

Scenario

You have been hired by an environmental management agency to monitor the levels of Lake Erie to ensure they stay within normal range. The Lake Erie dataset gives the monthly levels of Lake Erie from 1967 to 2016. Levels have been somewhat high lately, and you have been asked to forecast the levels to predict where they will be in the near future. If water levels get too high, there is risk of flooding. On the other hand, if water levels get too low, shorelines start to recede.

Lake Erie dataset available here:https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AhKLmZS5tRDxc6N8GX36O2W55yzW0tKs/view?usp=sharing

a) Plot the given time series.

b) Fit an MA(7) and a Holt-Winters model to the series. Give the parameters of your HoltWinters model.

c) Using each model, predict the level of Lake Erie for the next four months.

d) Plot the original series, the MA(7) with four forecasts, and the Holt-Winters with four forecasts on the same axis.

e) Discuss whether the predictions from each model similar or not. If your models give conflicting predictions, use the MSE to decide which model to use.

f) Discuss in which direction you predict Lake Erie water levels to move.