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Rodney said to his division manager, "Arnie, if we win the government contract next year, my business unit will contribute a profit of $$3$ million to your division. But the odds of us winning the contract are quite small, so we should assume a profit of nearly $$1$ million, which is still a record high number for us$.$ That is much more realistic, but still challenging." "Great," said Arnie, "I'll put you down for $$3$ million." Rodney left the meeting, frustrated that he was ignored. In this situation, Arnie was guilty of

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