Imagine that the U.S. experiences two consecutive quarters where we observe substantial (e.g., 2-3%) declines in real imports. This decline results in real imports falling well below the long-term trendline that existed before COVID-19. What does this imply about the likelihood the U.S. economy will experience a recession in the coming quarters?

Question 1 options:

a)	Multiple quarters of declining imports has no historical predictive accuracy that that U.S. economy will enter a recession in the coming quarters.
b)	Given imports contribute negatively to gross domestic product, declining imports are a positive indicator for the U.S. economy (i.e., suggesting a recession will be less likely).
c)	Multiple consecutive quarters of declining real imports are a strong indicator a recession is likely to occur.