Question: Imagine that the U.S. experiences two consecutive quarters where we observe substantial (e.g., 2-3%) declines in real imports. What does this imply about the likelihood
Imagine that the U.S. experiences two consecutive quarters where we observe substantial (e.g., 2-3%) declines in real imports. What does this imply about the likelihood the U.S. economy will experience a recession in the coming quarters?
Question 1 options:
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| a) | Given imports contribute negatively to gross domestic product, declining imports are a positive indicator for the U.S. economy (i.e., suggesting a recession will be less likely). |
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| b) | Multiple quarters of declining imports are not indicative of the health of the overall economy, suggesting that this data, by itself, isn't indicative of whether the economy will or will not enter a recession. |
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| c) | Multiple consecutive quarters of declining real imports are a strong indicator a recession is likely to occur. |
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