Looking at only the critical path, find the probability that the store will take 26 or more working days to open.

Activity	Optimistic	Most likely	Pessimistic	Expected	Variance
A	2	2.5	6	(2+2.5+6)/3 = 3.5	0.444
C	2	3	10	(2+3+10)/3 = 5	1.777
E	1	4	7	(1+4+7)/3 = 4	1
F	3	11	13	(3+11+13)/3 = 9	2.777
H	1	3	5	(1+3+5)/3 = 3	0.444

Variance of Critical path = 0.444 + 1.777 + 1 + 2.777 + 0.444 = 6.444

Variance of the project = Squ. Rt. of 6.444 = 2.54

(24-23)/2.54 = 0.39

e) What is the probability of completing path ACEFH in time for the store to open in 24 working days or less?