MGMT 360 Homework 1 Forecasting and productivity - Due date 10:30 am 09/18/2020 A local pizza restaurant sells a variety of pizzas. They want to forecast their sales quantity (demand) of the best-selling Tuscan Roma pizza in next two periods, so that they can make plan about their supplies and staffs. The sales of Tuscan Roma pizza in period 1-8 is as follow (in 100s). Period Sales 1 40 2 55 3 48 4 58 I 5 48 6 68 7 54 8 70 Please use following methods to forecast sales of Tuscan Roma pizza in period 9. Round to two decimal places. a. A three - period moving average (15 points) b. A weighted average using 0.5 for most recent period, 0.3 for next most recent period and 0.2 for the next. (15 points) c. Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to 0.2, assuming forecast for period 7 is 50. (20 points) d. A linear trend equation. (50 points) t ty t^2 1 2 3 y 40 55 48 58 48 68 54 70 232 4 5 6 7 8 240 408 16 25 36 49 64 1378 560 Sum Please calculate fill 10 blank yellow cells to calculate intersect a, slope b, then write the linear trend equation, and then calculate. ise- ontrol private%2C%20max-age%3D21600&response-content-disposition=inlin Oproductivity-Error%20corrected%281%29.docx BIU A. A. EEEEEE e. Seasonal relatives are 0.9 for period 1, 1.2 for period 2,0.95 for period 3 and 1.07 for period 4. Use this season relatives to deseasonalize demand for period 1-8. (20 points) Period Sales Seasonal Deseasonalized relatives Demand 1 40 2 55 3 48 14 58 5 48 6 68 1 1 17 54 8 70 f. Suppose the deseasonlized sales follows linear trend equation of, estimated demand for period 9. (20 points) g. Suppose the actual sales for period 9 turn out to be 59. Please fill out each of the below tables to calculate error measurements. (120 points) Bonus: Which method you prefer the most? Why? (20 points) Weighted average Period Actual Forecast A-F (Error) 5 48 54 6 68 51 Error Error2 [Error/Actual]*100 -6 17 6 17 36 289 12.5 25 7 -6 54 70 59 6 13 36 169 8 13 60 57 65 Sum 11.1 18.6 9 n=5 MAD n-1-4 MSE n=5 MAPE Linear Trend Period Actual Forecast A-F (Error) Error Error 2 (Error/Actual)*100 5 48 56 -8 8 64 16.6 6 68 59 9 9 81 13.2 7 54 62 -8 8 64 14,8 8 70 65 5 5 25 7.1 9 59 68 Sum n=5 MAD In-1-4 MSE n=5 MAPE Seasonality Period Actual Forecast A-F (Error) Error Error2 Error/Actual]"100 5 48 52 -4 4 16 8.3 6 68 69 -1 1 1 1.5 7 54 56 -2 2 41 3.7 8 70 66 4 4 16 5.7 9 59 57 Sum n-5 n-124 n=5 MAD MSE MAPE h. Assume the boss of the pizza store hired four employees for $15/hour to make the Tuscan Roma pizza, and each of them works 160 hours/month in average. The material costs for each Tuscan Roma pizza is about $2 and other overhead (e.g. rent, utility, hardware) is about $3400/month. Assume the average price of a Tuscan Roma pizza is $7, please find the overall productivity for period 1. And what is the implication of this productivity? (40 points)