MKT $364$ Operations Management

Case #$2$ Forecasting

Background

Read the Southwestern University $($B$)$ case on Page $152$ of the textbook.

Solution Requirements

Utilize Microsoft Excel to complete the following steps:

$1.$ Create a linear trend forecast for the next ten games. Hint: You will have to create a linear trend equation for each game of the season across all six years. In other words, use all six years of info for Game $1$ to create a Game $1$ trend equation. Then repeat for Game $2$ through Game $5.$ Once you have the equation for each of the five games, a forecast can be made for each game across the next two years to give you ten game forecasts.

For example:

Game $1$

Year $($x$)$ Attendees $($y$)$ X$2$ XY

$1$

$2$

$3$

$4$

$5$

$6$

Sum

Avg

$2.$ Compute seasonal indices for each game. Use this to adjust the linear trend forecast generated in the previous step for the next ten games. Hint: Use games as $$seasons$$ in the six years of data, so treat each game like a month in a year in your calculations.

$3.$ Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE. Assume the actual demand for the next ten games is:

$4.$ Use the forecast and information in the case on ticket prices to project revenue for the next two seasons.