Monthly demand for a product as shown below (also given in the attached file).

Month	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
JAN	2000	3000	2000	5000	5000
FEB	3000	4000	5000	4000	2000
MAR	3000	3000	5000	4000	3000
APR	3000	5000	3000	2000	2000
MAY	4000	5000	4000	5000	7000
JUN	6000	8000	6000	7000	6000
JUL	7000	3000	7000	10000	8000
AUG	6000	8000	10000	14000	10000
SEP	10000	12000	15000	16000	20000
OCT	12000	12000	15000	16000	20000
NOV	14000	16000	18000	20000	22000
DEC	8000	10000	8000	12000	8000

Plot the data and discuss about systematic components of demand. Forecast the monthly demand for Year 6 using Winter's Model, given

= 0.1, = 0.2, = 0.1. Evalute the MAD, MSE, MAPE.

Run a liner regression to compute the level and trend componenets.

Seasonal Facator for first year given as S_1=0.427 S_2= 0.475 S_3= 0.463 S_4= 0.398 S_5= 0.621 S_6= 0.834 S_7= 0.853 S_8= 1.151 S_9= 1.733 S_10= 1.778 S_11= 2.124 S_12= 1.095