N 0 C D E F H T J K L M 1 Year 1 Month Sales MA(1) Absolute Deviation MA(3) Absolute Deviation 2 2018 January 12,354 3 2018 February 13,657 4 2018 March 14,536 5 2018 April 13,478 6 2018 May 16,590 7 2018 June 19.790 8 2018 July 17,987 9 2018 August 18.657 10 2018 September 19,765 11 2018 October 18,678 12 2018 November 20,678 13 2018 December 23,675 14 2019 January ? 15 MAD for MA(1) MAD for MA(3) 16 17 18 19 30 20 Q1: The monthly volume for men's dress shoes sold by "Select Soles" based in Hawthorn Woods, Mlinois, about 40 miles northwest of Chicago, is given above: 21 (10 points a. Use Moving Average over one period, i.e., MA (1) to forecast the sales for January 2019 22 (20 points b. Compute MAD for MA (1) 23 (10 points, c. Use Moving Average over three period, i.e., MA (3) to forecast the sales for January 2019 24 (20 points d. Compute MAD for MA (3) 25 (10 points e. Which forcasting method is more accurate, MA (1) or MA (3)? 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 Q1 Q2 + 0.3 Year Absolute Deviation Alpha= Quarter Profit ($1,000) Exponential Smoothing 1 1 45 1 2 51 1 3 72 1 4 50 2 1 49 2 2 45 2 3 79 2 4 54 3 1 42 3 2 58 3 3 70 3 4 56 4 1 ? MAD Q2: The quarterly profits (in thousands of dollars) for Royale Beverages" headquartered in Casey Illinois, about 80 miles southeast of Urbana-Champaign, are listed in the table above. (20 points) a. Forecast year 4 quarter 1 profit using Exponential Smoothing with alpha = 0.3 (10 points b. what is the MAD