PART II

The wedding date for a couple is quickly approaching, and the wedding planner must provide the caterer an estimate of how many people will attend the reception so that the appropriate quantity of food is prepared for the buffet.$37$ invitations have been sent out.

$7$ of the invitees RSVP that they will each not attend.

$10$ of the invitees RSVP that they will each attend alone.

$15$ of the invitees RSVP that they will each attend with a companion.

$5$ of the invitees did not RSVP$.$

The number of guests that actually attend does not necessarily correspond to the number of RSVPs$.$Based on her experience, the wedding planner knows that it is extremely rare for people to attend a wedding if they RSVPed that they will not attend. Therefore, the wedding planner will assume that no one from these $7$ invitations will attend. For each of the $10$ invitees that RSVP attending alone, there is a $75\%$ chance of attending alone, a $20\%$ chance of not attending, and a $5\%$ chance of attending with a companion. For each of the $15$ invitees who RSVP attending with a companion, there is a $90\%$ chance of attending with a companion, a $5\%$ chance of attending alone, and a $5\%$ chance of not attending. For each of the $5$ invitees who have not responded, the wedding planner assumes that there is an $80\%$ chance of not attending, a $15\%$ chance of attending alone, and a $5\%$ chance of attending with a companion.

Develop a spreadsheet simulation model to estimate the number of guests that will attend the reception.$$ Include $30$ uncertain variables, some for the numbers of actual attendees associated with RSVP $1,$ some for the numbers of actual attendees associated with RSVP $2,$ and some for the numbers of actual attendees associated with no RSVP$.$ The uncertainties can be characterized by discrete distributions.

$$

Flag question: Question $5$

Question $50\mathrm{.}35$ pts

What is the expected $($i$.$e$.,$ average$)$ number of guests that will attend the reception?

Group of answer choices

less than $35$

$35$ or $36$

$37$ or $38$

$39$ or $40$

$41$ or $42$

$43$ or $44$

more than $44$