Question: Perform a moving average forecast. Experiment with different time windows. Find the best one based on MAPE. Plot the chosen forecast and actual data overlaid.

  1. Perform a moving average forecast.
    1. Experiment with different time windows. Find the best one based on MAPE.
    2. Plot the chosen forecast and actual data overlaid.
    3. Provide MAD and MAPE.
    4. Month Name

      Month Number

      Sales(thousand $)

      Jan

      1

      53

      Feb

      2

      39

      Mar

      3

      37

      Apr

      4

      55

      May

      5

      47

      Jun

      6

      55

      Jul

      7

      47

      Aug

      8

      43

      Sep

      9

      45

      Oct

      10

      47

      Nov

      11

      45

      Dec

      12

      100

      Jan

      13

      73

      Feb

      14

      55

      Mar

      15

      47

      Apr

      16

      55

      May

      17

      47

      Jun

      18

      43

      Jul

      19

      45

      Aug

      20

      40

      Sep

      21

      23

      Oct

      22

      33

      Nov

      23

      31

      Dec

      24

      44

      Jan

      25

      40

      Feb

      26

      46

      Mar

      27

      50

      Apr

      28

      51

      May

      29

      48

      Jun

      30

      87

      Jul

      31

      90

      Aug

      32

      131

      Sep

      33

      139

      Oct

      34

      144

      Nov

      35

      138

      Dec

      36

      127

      Jan

      37

      177

      Feb

      38

      194

      Mar

      39

      192

      Apr

      40

      172

      May

      41

      201

      Jun

      42

      214

      Jul

      43

      215

      Aug

      44

      199

      Sep

      45

      229

      Oct

      46

      250

      Nov

      47

      233

      Dec

      48

      234

      Jan

      49

      256

      Feb

      50

      280

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