Please clearly indicate which sub-question is being answered

• Show formulas for all calculations. Points will be taken off for missing formulas.
• Clearly highlight your final answers.

M3 Problem Set: Forecasting for Operations (100 pts) Problem-1 (40 pts) The annual demand for lime bags at McCall's Garden Supply for the past 11 years is provided in the tab McCalls Garden Supply. a. C. Use 2-year, 3-year, and 4-year moving averages to forecast demand in year 12. (5 pts) b. Forecast demand with a 3-year weighted moving average in which demand in the most recent year is given a weight of 2 and demands in the other two years are each given a weight of 1. (5 pts) Forecast demand for year 12 by using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.4. Assume that the forecast for year 1 is 6,000 bags to begin the procedure. (10 pts) d. Which of the methods analyzed here would you use for year 12 and beyond? Answer by making forecasts for years 5-11 using each of the above methods and then calculating the mean absolute percent error (MAPE). (20 pts) Year Bags ('000s) 1 4 2 8 3 6 4 6 + 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 9 6 8 7 7 8 9 13 9 10 14 11 16 12