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1. The number of heart surgeries performed at Star General Hospital has increased steadily over the past several years. The hospital's administration is seeking the best method to forecast the demand for such surgeries in future years. The data for the past 5 years is shown below. Year 1 2 Actual Demand 61 54 58 56 3 4 5 47 To determine the best forecasting methods for the hospital, you need to calculate forecasts using several methods as instructed and compare the errors. Begin error calculation in year 3, so all methods are compared for the same years. Follow the format explained in the class. Note: For each forecasting method below (a-c), calculate these measures. Keep one decimal: i. Average forecast error ii. the mean absolute percent error (MAPE), iii. Mean squared error (MSE), a. Exponential smoothing, with a = 0.6. Let the initial forecast for year 1 be 46. b. Trend projection (hint: you need to create a regression equation using MS Excel) C. Two-year weighted moving average, using weights 0.6 and 0.4, with more recent data given more weight. d. If Avg forecast error is chosen, which forecasting method should it choose? e. If MAPE is chosen, which forecasting method should it choose? f. If MSE is chosen, which forecasting method should it choose