Please use the data from figure $1$ to answer the following questions using a spreadsheet as demonstrated in class.

Figure $1$: Real$-$estate Loans $($billions$)($monthly$)$

$\backslash$table$[[$Month$,$Dmd$,$Month,Dmd$],[1,59\mathrm{.}4,13,59],[2,59\mathrm{.}8,14,59\mathrm{.}3],[3,60,15,59\mathrm{.}5],[4,60,16,59\mathrm{.}5],[5,60\mathrm{.}3,17,59\mathrm{.}5],[6,60\mathrm{.}1,18,59\mathrm{.}7],[7,59\mathrm{.}7,19,59\mathrm{.}7],[8,59\mathrm{.}5,20,60\mathrm{.}5],[9,59\mathrm{.}4,21,60\mathrm{.}7],[10,59\mathrm{.}3,22,61\mathrm{.}3],[11,59\mathrm{.}2,23,61\mathrm{.}4],[12,59\mathrm{.}1,24,61\mathrm{.}8]]$

Question $1$

Develop forecasts using the na$$ve method, a $4-$period simple moving average, a $4$period weighted moving average $,$ and $($:$W_{t-3}=\mathrm{.}125\},$ and an exponential forecast $)=(\mathrm{.}3$ for period $25.$

Question $2$

Please evaluate the quality of the forecasts you created in the previous questions $($assuming regression is appropriate$)$ using, Bias, MAD, and MAPE.

Question $3$

Which forecasting method would you recommend and why?