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Case Problem 1 FORECASTING FOOD AND BEVERAGE SALES The Vintage Restaurant. Captiva Island near Fort Myers Florida, is owned and operated by Karen Payne The restaurant just completed its third year of operation. During that time. Kuren ught to establish a reputation for the restaurant as high quality dining establish ment that specializes in fresh seafood. Tugh the efforts of Karen and her staff her restau. rant has become one of the best and fastest-growing restaurants on the island To better plan for future growth of the restaurant, Karen needs to develop - system that will enable her to forecast food beverage sale by month for up to one year in advance Table 15.17 show the value of food and heverage sales ($10 for the first three years of operation . Managerial Report Perform an analysis of the sales data for the Vintage Restaurant Prepare a report for Karen that summarizes your findings, forecasts and recommendations Include the following A time series plot. Comment on the underlying pattern in the time series Using the dummy variable approach forecast sales for January through December of the fourth year TABLE 15.17 FOOD AND BEVERAGE SALES FOR THE VINTAGE RESTAURANT (STON First Year 242 235 Month January February March April May June July August September October November December 232 17 184 10 145 152 110 1.30 153 Second Year 263 23 247 193 191 149 157 161 12 120 167 20 Third Year 282 255 205 205 210 160 1 174 126 1 173 235 alysis and con Assume that January les loe the fourth year to be $295. What was on forester his erroris Latge Raren may be puzzled out the erence her een your forecast and the actuales lue. We can do to resolve her uncertant the ng procedure What is the main problem we are trying to solve? Select one: a. Forecast next year's sales at Vintage Restaurant. O b. Find the Seasonal Irregular Effect. c. Find the seasonality for each month. o d. Forecast the highest profit. What are the possible solutions? Select one: O a. Any number is possible. O b. They must add up to 100%. o c. They can only be less than 1. d. Typically between 0 and 2. Which solution will we choose? Select one: o a. Choose the one with the most profit. O b. Choose the lowest value. c. There is only one way to calculate them. d. Choose the highest value