Problem $1.$ Use the attached Excel file with the quarterly demand $($in $1000$ s of cases$)$ for a national beer distributor over the past $4$ years $($data taken from textbook problem $11-47).$

Generate a forecast using Exponential smoothing, using $=\mathrm{.}7.$ Assume forecast for Quarter $)$ was $294($i$.$e$.,($:$F_1=294\}.(3$pts$)$

a$.$ What is the forecast for Quarter $)=(17?$

b$.$ Find the MAD based on periods $5$ through $)=(5,6,$dots,$16.$ What is the MAD?

c$.$ Use nonlinear programming to find the $$ that minimizes MAD.

i$.$ What is the $?$

ii$.$ What is the MAD?

iii. What is the forecast for Quarter $)=(17$ using this $?$