Problem 12-09 (Algorithmic)

A project has four activities(A,B, C, andD)that must be performed sequentially. The probability distributions for the time required to complete each of the activities are as follows:

Activity Activity Time(weeks) Probability

A 4 0.27

5 0.37

6 0.26

7 0.10

B 6 0.16

8 0.54

10 0.30

C 10 0.11

12 0.26

14 0.36

16 0.22

18 0.05

D 10 0.66

12 0.34

a. Provide the base-case, worst-case, and best-case calculations for the time to complete the project.

Activity Base case Worst case Bestcase

A _______weeks _______weeks _______weeks

B _______weeks _______weeks _______weeks

C _______weeks _______weeks _______weeks

D _______weeks _______weeks _______weeks

TOTAL _______weeks _______weeks _______weeks

b. Use the random numbers 0.6361, 0.9453, 0.651 and 0.7795 to simulate the completion time of the project in weeks.

Activity Random Number Completion Time

A 0.6361 _______weeks

B 0.9453 _______weeks

C 0.651 _______weeks

D 0.7795 _______weeks

TOTAL _______weeks

c. Discuss how simulation could be used to estimate the probability that the project can be completed in weeks or less.

Simulation provides a distribution of project completion times. The

_______________ (mean/percentage) of times weeks and under can be used to estimate the probability that the project will be completed within weeks.