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Problem 12-09 (Algorithmic)

A project has four activities (A, B, C, and D) that must be performed sequentially. The probability distributions for the time required to complete each of the activities are as follows:

Activity		Activity Time (weeks)		Probability
A		4		0.29
		5		0.39
		6		0.29
		7		0.03
B		8		0.15
		10		0.52
		12		0.33
C		7		0.09
		9		0.22
		11		0.42
		13		0.20
		15		0.07
D		11		0.60
		13		0.40

1. Provide the base-case, worst-case, and best-case calculations for the time to complete the project.

   Activity	Base case	Worst case	Best case
   A	fill in the blank 1 weeks	fill in the blank 2 weeks	fill in the blank 3 weeks
   B	fill in the blank 4 weeks	fill in the blank 5 weeks	fill in the blank 6 weeks
   C	fill in the blank 7 weeks	fill in the blank 8 weeks	fill in the blank 9 weeks
   D	fill in the blank 10 weeks	fill in the blank 11 weeks	fill in the blank 12 weeks
   Total	fill in the blank 13 weeks	fill in the blank 14 weeks	fill in the blank 15 weeks

2. Use the random numbers 0.5753, 0.1426, 0.3989 and 0.255 to simulate the completion time of the project in weeks.

   Activity	Random Number	Completion Time
   A	0.5753	fill in the blank 16 weeks
   B	0.1426	fill in the blank 17 weeks
   C	0.3989	fill in the blank 18 weeks
   D	0.255	fill in the blank 19 weeks
   Total		fill in the blank 20 weeks

3. Discuss how simulation could be used to estimate the probability that the project can be completed in weeks or less. Simulation provides a distribution of project completion times. The (mean or percentage)of times weeks and under can be used to estimate the probability that the project will be completed within weeks.

Problem 12-09 (Algorithmic) A project has four activities (A, B, C, and D) that must be performed sequentially. The probability distributions for the time required to complete each of the activities are as follows: Activity A B D Activity Time (weeks) 4 5 6 7 8 10 12 7 9 11 13 15 11 13 Probability 0.29 0.39 0.29 0.03 0.15 0.52 0.33 0.09 0.22 0.42 0.20 0.07 0.60 0.40 a. Provide the base-case, worst-case, and best-case calculations for the time to complete the project. Activity Base case A B C D Total C D Total 0.5753 0.1426 weeks weeks 0.3989 weeks 0.255 weeks Activity Random Number Completion Time A weeks B weeks Worst case weeks b. Use the random numbers 0.5753, 0.1426, 0.3989 and 0.255 to simulate the completion time of the project in weeks. weeks weeks weeks weeks weeks weeks Best case weeks weeks weeks weeks weeks weeks weeks c. Discuss how simulation could be used to estimate the probability that the project can be completed in weeks or less. Simulation provides a distribution of project completion times. The and under can be used to estimate the probability that the project mean percentage of times weeks in weeks. Problem 12-09 (Algorithmic) A project has four activities (A, B, C, and D) that must be performed sequentially. The probability distributions for the time required to complete each of the activities are as follows: Activity A B D Activity Time (weeks) 4 5 6 7 8 10 12 7 9 11 13 15 11 13 Probability 0.29 0.39 0.29 0.03 0.15 0.52 0.33 0.09 0.22 0.42 0.20 0.07 0.60 0.40 a. Provide the base-case, worst-case, and best-case calculations for the time to complete the project. Activity Base case A B C D Total C D Total 0.5753 0.1426 weeks weeks 0.3989 weeks 0.255 weeks Activity Random Number Completion Time A weeks B weeks Worst case weeks b. Use the random numbers 0.5753, 0.1426, 0.3989 and 0.255 to simulate the completion time of the project in weeks. weeks weeks weeks weeks weeks weeks Best case weeks weeks weeks weeks weeks weeks weeks c. Discuss how simulation could be used to estimate the probability that the project can be completed in weeks or less. Simulation provides a distribution of project completion times. The and under can be used to estimate the probability that the project mean percentage of times weeks in weeks