Problem 5 (20 points)

Consider the following seven-activity project for which you have estimated optimistic ("a"), most likely ("m"), and pessimistic ("b") activity times in days as well as established precedence relationships among the activities.

activity	immediate predecessors	a	m	b
A	---	9	12	15
B	---	11	14	17
C	A,B	16	22	28
D	B	13	16	25
E	D	7	10	13
F	C,E	10	13	22
G	D	15	18	21

(a.)How long will the project take, on average?

(b.)What is the critical path?

(c.)If activity A finished after 15 days had elapsed, would the project likely suffer a delay? Why or why not?

1. Consider a 57 day deadline. Find the probability that the project will be completed within 57 days. (Write down the Excel function.)

1. Now find the probability that the project will be completed in under 39 days.