Question $1$: $(5$ pts$)$

What patterns are visible in this dataset $($Note that years are typically not considered to

be seasons when looking for seasonality$)?$

a$.$ Trend ONLY

b$.$ Trend and Random Variation

c$.$ Trend, Seasonality, and Random Variation

d$.$ Random Variation ONLY

Question $2$: $(25$ pts total $$ show work for partial credit$)$

$($a$)$ Develop an Exponential Smoothing forecast starting at $2004$ to $2013.$ Use

$=0\mathrm{.}3.$

Make the appropriate assumption regarding the forecast for $2004.(15$ pts$)$

$($b$)$ Calculate the MSE using errors starting at $2005$ through $2013.(5$ pts$)$

$($c$)$ Calculate the Tracking Signal using errors starting at $2005$ through $2013.(5$ pts$)$

Question $3$: $(20$ pts total $$ show work for partial credit$)$