Question $1$:

Sales for the past $12$ months at Dalworth Company are given here.

Month

Sales in million $

Month

Sales in million $

January

$20$

July

$53$

February

$24$

August

$62$

March

$27$

September

$54$

April

$31$

October

$36$

May

$37$

November

$32$

June

$47$

December

$29$

a$.$ Use a three$-$month moving average to forecast the sales for the months May through December.

b$.$ Use a four$-$month moving average to forecast the sales for the months May through December.

c$.$ Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean absolute deviation as the performance criterion. Which method would you recommend?

d$.$ Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean absolute percent error as the performance criterion. Which method would you recommend?

e$.$ Compare the performance of the two methods by using the mean squared error as the performance criterion. Which method would you recommend?

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