Question: Really Big Ideas, Inc., a small company that develops inventions for the consumer market, has recruited you as a consultant to make a recommendation on

Really Big Ideas, Inc., a small company that

Really Big Ideas, Inc., a small company that develops inventions for the consumer market, has recruited you as a consultant to make a recommendation on a critical business decision. The VP for product development explains that Really Big Ideas has a three-month window of opportunity to develop a new product using new pattern recognition software the company recently created. Surprisingly, the software adapts easily to different applications. Really Big Ideas only has the resources and time to develop one of two projects (a smoke/fire detector or motion detector project), or to develop none. The motion detector uses conventional household lighting, but the proposed smoke and fire detector must pass an Underwriters Laboratories (UL) safety certification before it can be sold. There is a chance that the smoke and fire detector will not pass any certification test. In this case-a complete failure-the company will lose the initial investment cost. Underwriters Laboratories does charge a non-refundable fee for the certification application. Probabilities of success for both projects are provided on the tree below. The final payoffs below include all relevant costs. Analyze the decision tree and provide a recommendation to the company in the blue box below. Show all supporting work in Excel, in cells outside the blue box. (0.3) Commercial grade 5895,000 (0.6) Residential grade 5695,000 C Submit application 10.5) Success (0.1) No certification -5105,000 Smoke & Fire Detector 10.5) Failure Don't submit application 5100,000 1 - 5100,000 (0.8) Success $390,000 Motion Detector (0.2) Failure $10,000 Neither Recommendation

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