Starbucks has a large, global supply chain that must efficiently supply over 17,000 stores. Although the stores might appear to be very similar, they are actually very different. Depending on the location of the store, its size, and the profile of the customers served, Starbucks management configures the store offerings to take maximum advantage of the space available and customer preferences.

Starbucks actual distribution system is much more complex, but for the purpose of our exercise lets focus on a single item that is currently distributed through five distribution centers in the United States. Our item is a logo-branded coffeemaker that is sold at some of the larger retail stores. The coffeemaker has been a steady seller over the years due to its reliability and rugged construction. Starbucks does not consider this a seasonal product, but there is some variability in demand. Demand for the product over the past 13 weeks is shown in the following table. (week 1 is the week before week 1 in the table, 2 is two weeks before week 1, etc.).

Management would like you to experiment with some forecasting models to determine what should be used in a new system to be implemented. The new system is programmed to use one of two forecasting models: simple moving average or exponential smoothing.

7 0 O mm 33 43 WEEK Atlanta Boston Chicago Dallas LA Total -5 45 58 56 42 45 246 -4 34 25 20 35 40 -3 32 48 68 38 50 -2 54 41 42 62 41 -1 33 32 42 43 38 1 32 33 45 25 36 2 46 34 33 28 42 o u uw mm 36 42 25 34 45 UU Now 48gHww 55un 6 28 46 69 62 66 46 47 50 47 8 58 19 30 62 35 20 54 65 68 42 9 45 60 24 48 39 216 10 36 42 96 42 42 wwwN 52 11 25 32 35 36 46 12 55 45 44 43 53 13 41 52 47 42 49 FF 40 45 213 154 236 240 188 171 183 182 245 271 249 204 258 174 240 231 a. Consider using a simple moving average model. Experiment with models using five weeks' and three weeks' past data. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) 3-week MA 3-week MA ATL BOS CHI DAL LA Total Week 1 2 | 3 4 01 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 5-week MA ATL BOS CHI DAL LA Total Week 1 2 3 4 5 LO 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 b. Evaluate the forecasts that would have been made over the 13 weeks using the overall (at the end of the 13 weeks) mean absolute deviation, mean absolute percent error, and tracking signal as criteria. (Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round all answers to 2 decimal places. Enter "MAPE" answers as a percentage rounded to 2 decimal places.) ATL BOS CHE DAL LA Avg of DCS 3-week MA MAD MAPE TS 5-week MA MAD MAPE TS