Suppose there has been a decline in economic activity and you are usng the rules of thumb for identifying a recession to determine if it is likely that there is a recession. What modification would your instructor make to the rule of thumb for diffusion.

		He would change it to if the diffusion index for employment over a 6-month span for all industries is declining and below 50% we are probably in or going to have a recession.
		He would change it to if the diffusion index for employment over a 6-month span for all industries is declining and below 25% we are probably in or going to have a recession.
		He would change it to if the diffusion index for employment over a 6-month span for all industries is declining and below 65% we are probably in or going to have a recession.
		He would change it to if the diffusion index for industrial production over a 6-month span for all industries is declining and below 25% we are probably in or going to have a recession.

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