Question: The Space Transportation Program Office has tasked you with estimating production costs for a new solid propellant rocket engine to be used on the International
The Space Transportation Program Office has tasked you with estimating production costs for a new solid propellant rocket engine to be used on the International Launch Vehicle (ILV).
Prior to collecting historical data, meetings with propulsion engineers were held. The results of the identification phase were encouraging. The experts agree that the primary driver of solid propellant rocket engine production costs is Power. For propulsion systems, Power can be measured in several ways, such as Average Thrust, Burn Time and Propellant Weight. During the specification phase, the experts all agreed that as power, burn time, and propellant weight increased, cost would also increase.
Data on twelve analogous rocket engines were gathered. The cost data is normalized to the cost at unit 100 in FY98$. The historical database is as follows:
Rocket Engines
| Engine | Cost (@ Unit 100) | Average Thrust (lbs) | Burn Time (sec) | Propellant Weight (lbs) |
| 1 | 9,739 | 1505 | 10.35 | 1003 |
| 2 | 6,836 | 2,320 | 11.55 | 2340 |
| 3 | 11,280 | 46,780 | 16.80 | 2536 |
| 4 | 96,334 | 2,465 | 21.52 | 6556 |
| 5 | 58,593 | 9,432 | 14.93 | 3,348 |
| 6 | 44,389 | 24,345 | 17.43 | 2,504 |
| 7 | 911,234 | 16,290 | 35.60 | 6,451 |
| 8 | 999,999 | 33,735 | 31.80 | 6,986 |
| 9 | 932,510 | 33,450 | 43.10 | 6,785 |
| 10 | 1,344,350 | 4,500 | 45.60 | 8,307 |
| 11 | 1,481,090 | 14,657 | 50.60 | 9,400 |
| 12 | 1,536,800 | 67,555 | 52.40 | 9,120 |
Tasks: Develop the best model/prediction possible, given the database provided. Document the process used and the decisions made along the way.
2. Perform simple linear regression analysis on this data (Cost vs Average Thrust; Cost vs Burn Time; and Cost vs Propellant Weight). Analyze each regression using the Hierarchy of Regression that we used in class. Identify your preferred linear regression/CER. Indicate why you prefer the best one, and why you eliminated the other two CERs (Cost Estimating Relationships).
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