The spreadsheet $$forecasting$-$problem.xlsx$$ contains data for the past $30$ weeks of demand

for product X$.$ Based on the data, answer the following questions.

$($a$)$ Plot the data. Just by observing the plot, do you think a $3-$week simple moving average

would be a better forecast than a $6-$week simple moving average? Again, just by looking at

the plot, do you think an exponential smoothing with parameter $\backslash$alpha $=0\mathrm{.}2$ would be a better

forecast than an exponential smoothing with parameter $\backslash$alpha $=0\mathrm{.}6?$ Explain your reasoning.

$($For exponential smoothing, use $1=600$ for initialization of week $1.)$

$($b$)$ Out of the four possible forecasting models $(3-$week and $6-$week simple moving average

and exponential smoothing with parameters $\backslash$alpha $=0\mathrm{.}2$ and $\backslash$alpha $=0\mathrm{.}6),$ which is the best forecast?

Justify your answer by calculating the MAD. $($For exponential smoothing models, assume

the forecast for the first week is $600.)$

$($Note: Different people could reach different conclusions, but you need to give good

reasons for your conclusions.$)$

$2.$ What would a $1-$period moving average forecasting method mean?

$3.$ Compare and contrast exponential smoothing when $\backslash$alpha is small $($near zero$)$ and when $\backslash$alpha is

large $($near one$).$