- to + 41+ 6 Problem 4 (45 Points): Consider the PERT network, as shown below. The duration estimate for each activity is given in the notation o-m-p, where o-optimistic, m-most likely (mode). p-pessimistic... The estimate times are given in weeks. What is the probability that this project will be completed in 88 weeks? D 10-12-15 Finish late the y value: Xp, Xy, y, and y; need to be entered/copied from the table. X defines the point to perform the interpolation. y, is the interpolated value and solution XY c=(- )/6)) ==(Ts - T.) or 0 Solving for y, 7-9-12 21Y2 you (*3-*XX -) (3-4) A or = (0-c+ 0 p + y + ...)12 K 8-11-15 > ; E 2-3-5 Depends on the critical path 19-24-30 B 4-5-7 F 3-5-6 Start 10-13-17 G 8-11-15 Fill out the following Table on the next page Probabilty Table is on the next page z Probability Z -3.0 0.1% -10 -29 0.2% % -0.9 -28 0.3% -08 -27 0.3% 07 -26 0.5% -06 -25 0.6% -0.5 2.4 0.8% -0.4 -2.3 1.1% -0.3 -22 1.4% -0.2 -2.1 1.8% -0.1 -20 23% 0.0 -1.9 29% 0.1 -1.8 3.6% 02 -1.7 4.5% 0.3 -1.6 5.596 0.4 -1.5 6.7% 0.5 -1.4 8.1% 06 -1.3 9.7% 0.7 -1.2 11.5% 08 -1.1 136% 09 -10 16.9% 10 Probability 15.9% 18.4% 21.2% 24 2% 27.4% 30.9% 34 5% 39.2% 42.1% 46.0% 50 0% 54 0% 579% 61 8% 655% 69.1% 72.6% 75.8% 78 8% 81.6% B41% Z 10 1.1 12 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 20 2.1 22 23 2.4 25 2.6 2.7 28 2.9 30 Probability 84.1% 86.4% 88.5% 90 396 91.9% 93.3% 94.5% 95.5% 96.4% 97A1% 97.7% 98 2% 98.6% 99.9% 9912% 99.4% 99.5% 99.7% 99.7% 99 8% 99.9% Task . 1. tm ti var ES LS TF A B C D E F G H I J K Critical Path and its duration