UPDATES AVAILABLE Updates for Office are ready to be installed, but first we need to close some apps. Update now 22 f B C D E F N G H Test within Sumph E. Forecast Ener M Period Squared Absolute Percentage Error Error Ener Quarter Bias . MAD. TS 1 1 ----------- Period Pemand D 0 1 549 2 594 3 611 4 745 728 650 745 650 773 10 728 11 824 12 790 807 2 796 3 924 4 969 ON-NOCO 22 572.98 592 36 61173 631 11 650.48 669.86 689.23 708.60 727 98 747.35 766.73 786.10 805.47 T. 19.37 19.37 19.37 19.37 1937 19.37 19.37 19.37 19.37 19.37 19:37 19.37 19.37 17.85 824 85 844 22 863.60 882.97 17.85 48.22 60.40 -86.03 318.57 2325,42 3648.55 7401 01 17.85 48.22 60.40 3603 2.21% 6.06% 6.54% 8.88% 17 85 66.07 5.67 -80.36 33.04 42.16 53.13 1.00 2.00 0.13 -151 Overall MAD 53.13 MAPE 5.92N MSE 3423.39 SE Perioden Statir nalucite ER ti 0 B S w X Y TU Instructions This is a sample and actual Holt's forecast. Your goal is to create the best possible forecast for quarters HV of Year 5. 1. Use the spinner buttons to experiment with the Sample Holt's forecast. Find the Land B values that minimize MAD. 2. Move to the Actual Holt's forecast and calculate level and trend for t=0. You need to put in the time period values before doing this. 3. Continuing with the Actual Holt's forecast calculate level and trend for all subsequent time periods. Use the cand B cells referenced in the sample forecast. Do not change these values. 4. Now create the forecase for Year 5. 5. Check you work with the check figures shown below. Check figures for Actual Holt's forecast if t+B=0 L=560.70 To-21.41 Quarter Period Pemand D Forecast F 1 II III 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 8 8 8 8 8 8 89 S6AAAA 1 549 594 611 745 728 650 745 650 III V 773 N 728 824 790 807 796 924 969 TV 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 II HII IV