Using a Delphi approach to forecasting the development trajectory of a radically newemerging technology, we find that the 4 experts we consulted are unable to reach a consensus and their forecasts differ significantly - even after 10 iterations. What should we best do - from among the following options?

Develop an average of the four forecasts and treat that as our initial forecast for decision making

Develop a weighted average of the four forecasts, weighting each expert's forecast differently considering their experience in that area, research reputation, and other relevant differentiators.

Continue with the Delphi process until the 4 experts arrive at some degree of consensus.

Ignore the expert divergent opinions, and use our own internal R&D and sales people to develop a forecast.