Question: Using a Delphi approach to forecasting the development trajectory of a radically new emerging technology, we find that the 4 experts we consulted are unable
Using a Delphi approach to forecasting the development trajectory of a radically new emerging technology, we find that the experts we consulted are unable to reach a consensus and their forecasts differ significantly even after iterations. What should we best do from among the following options?
Question options:
Ignore the expert divergent opinions, and use our own internal R&D and sales people to develop a forecast.
Develop an average of the four final forecasts and treat that as our initial forecast for decision making
Develop a weighted average of the four final forecasts, weighting each expert's forecast differently considering their experience in that area, research reputation, and other relevant differentiators.
Continue with the Delphi process until the experts arrive at some degree of consensus.
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