Question: Using the following dataset (Show your work.): Time Period Demand July27August24September19October22November27December22January18 Plot the data. How do you interpret the nature of the variation in the

  1. Using the following dataset (Show your work.):
Time PeriodDemandJuly27August24September19October22November27December22January18
  1. Plot the data. How do you interpret the nature of the variation in the graph
  2. Create a series of forecasts for October to January with the Nave method.
  3. Create a series of forecasts for October to January with the MA3 method.
  4. Create a series of forecasts for October to January with the WMA3 method, with weights 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2.
  5. For each of the three forecast methods, calculate the error summary statistics Mean Bias, MAD, MSE and MAPE.

Which forecast method forecasts the best? Explain your answer.

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