We have a Fertilizer company who wants to calculate its NPV for the next $5$years$.$ However, there are some uncertainties needed to be incorporated into the calculation:

Cost of capital ~ uniformly distributed between $7\%$and $13\%$

Cash flows at time $45$are uncertain:

CF$4$~ triangular distribution $($$$15$K$,$$$20$K$,$$$28$K$)$

CF$5$~ uniformly distributed between $$20$K and $$30$K

What is the probability that NPV is between $$5$K and $$7$K$?$What variable is NPV most sensitive to$?$

Cash outlay: $-75,000$

CF$1$: $20,000$

CF$2$: $20,000$

CF$3$: $20,000$

CF$4$: $?$

CF$5$: $?$

Salvage value in year $5$: $3,000$