You must decide whether to hold a fundraising event indoors or outdoors. There is a 30% likelihood
Question:
You must decide whether to hold a fundraising event indoors or outdoors. There is a 30% likelihood of rain. If held outdoors, you estimate you can expect 1,000 attendees. If held indoors, you have a much smaller capacity. The indoor venue costs $2,000 to rent and has a capacity of 500. If the weather is bad, you think you can sell out an indoor event. But, if the weather is nice, you may get a lower turnout to an indoor event, and cannot expect more than 400 to show up. An outdoor venue costs only $500 for cleanup fees but is non-refundable. However, if it rains, you risk having to cancel. You could rent a big tent which would hold some of the activities if it were held outdoors. The tent costs $4,000, plus $1,000 to set up and take down, day-of. If you rent the tent and it does not rain at all, you could decide not to put up the tent. If it turns out to be rainy, having a tent will likely attract at least 300 attendees. If you have no tent and it does rain, you will have to cancel the event and you estimate it will cost $1,000 in administrative fees and non-refundable food and DJ deposits. Do you think you can sell tickets for $20 regardless of whether it is indoors or outdoors?
a) Build a decision tree to represent the decision
b) What would your decision be? Why?
Management Science The Art of Modeling with Spreadsheets
ISBN: 978-1118582695
4th edition
Authors: Stephen G. Powell, Kenneth R. Baker