Your e-mail provider has a very good spam filter that only 1.5% of all e-mails passed...

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Your e-mail provider has a very good spam filter that only 1.5% of all e-mails passed the filter are spam. A lot of spam e-mails are trying to phish for your personal information so they ask you to go to an unknown web site where you are asked to enter this information. About 98% of the spam email will ask you to click on a link without providing you with the explicit url. In addition, 3% of the legitimate e-mails will ask you to click on a link without the explicit url being shown. For a random e-mail in your inbox (so this email has passed the filter), if you are provided a link without the explicit url, what is the probability that the e-mail is spam? BONUS: Why is your answer counterintuitive? Your e-mail provider has a very good spam filter that only 1.5% of all e-mails passed the filter are spam. A lot of spam e-mails are trying to phish for your personal information so they ask you to go to an unknown web site where you are asked to enter this information. About 98% of the spam email will ask you to click on a link without providing you with the explicit url. In addition, 3% of the legitimate e-mails will ask you to click on a link without the explicit url being shown. For a random e-mail in your inbox (so this email has passed the filter), if you are provided a link without the explicit url, what is the probability that the e-mail is spam? BONUS: Why is your answer counterintuitive?

Answer rating: 100% (QA)

Probability of spam email with no explicit URL Calculating the probability requires Bayes theorem PS... View the full answer