The prevalence of a disease among a certain population is .40. That is, there is a 40
Question:
The government is considering the following possible strategies with respect to the disease:
S1. Do not test and do not treat early.
S2. Do not test and treat early.
S3. Test and treat early if positive and do not treat early if negative.
Find the treatment/testing strategy that has the lowest expected costs for a member of the population.
In doing this exercise, the following notation may be helpful: Let D indicate presence of the disease, ND absence of the disease, T a positive test result, and NT a negative test result. Thus, we have the following information:
P(D) = .40, which implies P(ND) = .60
P(T|D) = .90, which implies P(NT|D) = .10
P(T|ND) = .05, which implies P(NT|ND) = .95
This information allows calculation of some other useful probabilities:
P(T) = P(T|D)P(D)+P(T|ND)P(ND) = .39 and P(NT) = .61
P(D|T) = P(T|D)P(D)/P(T) = .92 and P(ND|T) = .08
P(D|NT) = P(NT|D)P(D)/P(NT) = .07 and P(ND|NT) = .93
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Related Book For
Cost Benefit Analysis Concepts and Practice
ISBN: 978-0137002696
4th edition
Authors: Anthony Boardman, David Greenberg, Aidan Vining, David Weimer
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