Three business colleagues, Moe, Larry and Curly, employees of Acme Industrial Bearings, are the first to arrive at a meeting. They each put their own briefcase on the floor in the far corner of the large conference room, walk over to the huge conference table, sit next to each other at the table and begin to chat. Their briefcases are identical and indistinguishable from each other because they are issued by Acme which requires all employees to use company briefcases for marketing purposes. The garish design and the color of the briefcases is unmistakably Acme. Over the next ten minutes, seven other people enter the conference room and all randomly placed their briefcases on the floor in the same corner. Two of the seven people are from an Acme competitor, two are from a component parts manufacturer that is looking to turn Acme into a customer, and the remaining are from the Swiss company hosting the meeting, Buystufnow. Midway through the meeting the Buystufnow CFO asks Acme to make its presentation. As they shuffle through their own papers the Moe, Larry and Curly discover they each left a different and critical document needed for their part of the presentation in their respective briefcase. Panic strikes the trio. They know that all of them can't get up at one time to get their briefcases. The Swiss are extremely precise and insist everyone is prepared and ready to present on time so Moe, the senior colleague, thinks fast - turns to the most junior of the three, Larry, and asks, "What should we do?" Larry's mind goes blank. Then a flash of genius. "Moe, I have a plan," whispered Larry. "You stall them - tell them a story - just start talking about smart sounding stuff like you always do," Larry continued. "I'll walk to the corner, pick a briefcase and bring it back to the table. If it's the right one, I'll get my document, then I'll start the presentation," said Larry. "Then Curly will get a briefcase and come back to the table just at the precise time I finish my part of the presentation. If it's his briefcase, then he'll start his part," finished Larry. "I get it," replied Moe. "When Curly comes back, I'll get the last briefcase and bring it back to the table." Curly, who had been listening to the plan hatch, blurted, "But what are the chances?" They all looked toward the corner of the room where all the bags were piled. "Indeed," Larry replied, "What are the chances?" Just then, three more Buystufnow employees, one of which was the CEO, walked in to the conference and sat down. Thirty seconds later, Sheep, another Acme employee, bursts into the room, stumbles and falls, his briefcase hitting the floor and popping open with all the contents spilling out. "Sorry I'm late fells," he yells over to his Acme colleagues who are still sitting in their seats, stunned. Acme again, a second time, is asked to make its presentation. Moe, Larry and Curly look at each other. "What are the chances?" blurted Curly again. "I don't know," replies Larry as he gets up and walks to the briefcases in the corner. "Just follow the plan."
What is the likelihood Moe, Larry and Curly will each pick their own briefcase on the first try?