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Introduction To Business Statistics 7th Edition Ronald M. Weiers - Solutions

For the data of Exercise 18.7, use the weighting constant Î± = 0.5 and exponential smoothing to determine the forecast for 2008.In exercise
For the data of Exercise 18.9, use the weighting constant Î± = 0.6 and exponential smoothing to determine the forecast for 2008.In exercise
If a time series is such that sales are consistently increasing from one year to the next, will exponential smoothing tend to produce forecasts that are (a) over or (b) under the sales that are actually realized for the forecast period? Why?
The quarterly seasonal indexes for a firm’s electricity consumption are 115, 92, 81, and 112 for quarters I–IV. It has been forecast that electricity consumption will be 850,000 kilowatt-hours during 2014. Forecast electricity consumption for each quarter of 2014.
How do the MAD and MSE criteria differ in their approach to evaluating the fit of an estimation equation to a time series?
The following data are the wellhead prices for domestically produced natural gas, in dollars per thousand cubic feet, from 2001 through 2008. Given these data and the trend equations shown here, use the MAD criterion to determine which equation is the better fit. Repeat the evaluation, using the
The following data are the number of Harley- Davidson motorcycles sold worldwide for 2003 through 2006 (thousands). Given these data and the trend equations, use the MAD criterion to determine which equation is the better fit. Repeat the evaluation, using the MSE criterion.
Using the MAD criterion, determine which one of the equations developed in Exercise 18.7 is the better fit to the data in that exercise. Repeat the evaluation, using the MSE criterion.In exercise
Using the MAD criterion, determine which one of the equations developed in Exercise 18.8 is the better fit to the data in that exercise. Repeat the evaluation, using the MSE criterion.In exercise
What is the Durbin-Watson test for autocorrelation, and how can it be useful in evaluating the relevance of a given regression model that has been fitted to a set of time series data?
The least-squares regression equation Å· = 98.1 + 5.0t has been fitted to the shipment data given here. Calculate the Durbin-Watson d statistic and test for positive autocorrelation of the residuals at the 0.05 level of significance. Comment on the appropriateness of using this model
The least-squares regression equation Å· = 15.2 + 10.7t has been fitted to the shipment data in the table. Calculate the Durbin-Watson d statistic and test for positive autocorrelation of the residuals at the 0.05 level of significance. Based on your conclusion, comment on the
A regression model has 3 independent variables and 20 observations, and the calculated Durbin-Watson d statistic is 0.91. What, if any, conclusion will be reached in testing for autocorrelation of the residuals with a: a. two-tail test at the 0.02 level of significance? b. one-tail test for
A regression model has 2 independent variables and 16 observations, and the calculated Durbin-Watson d statistic is 2.78. What, if any, conclusion will be reached in testing for autocorrelation of the residuals with a: a. two-tail test at the 0.05 level of significance? b. test for negative
Analysis of a time series consisting of weekly visits (in thousands) to a corporate website has led to the following autoregressive forecasting equation: ŷt = 34.50 + 0.58yt–1 – 0.72yt–2. If there were 260 thousand visitors this week and 245 thousand last week, how many visitors would the
For the shipment data listed in Exercise 18.45, construct a first-order autoregressive forecasting equation and make a forecast for period 19.In exercise
Fit a linear trend equation to the following data describing average hourly earnings of U.S. production workers. What is the trend estimate for 2013?
According to the Investment Company Institute, the number of U.S. mutual shareholder accounts (millions) were as shown in the table for years 1990 (coded as t = 1) through 2007. Construct a second-order autoregressive equation and determine what the forecast would have been for 2008.
Over the past 20 years, inventory carrying costs for a large tire manufacturing facility have been as shown. Data are in thousands of dollars. Construct a first-order autoregressive forecasting equation for these data, calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the fit of the forecast values
Repeat Exercise 18.51, but for a second-order autoregressive forecasting equation. Compare the MAD values for forecasts generated by the two equations and indicate which one is the better fit to these data.Repeat exerciseOver the past 20 years, inventory carrying costs for a large tire
The Consumer Price Index and average annual wages in selected industries were as shown in the table.From 1990 to 2007, the average wages went up for workers in all three industries. However, which wage-earning groups fared best and worst in terms of their percentage change in spending power during
An executive’s salary increased from $95,000 to $130,000 between 2000 and 2007, but the Consumer Price Index went from 172.2 to 207.3 during this time span. In terms of real income, what was the percentage increase or decrease in the executive’s real earnings?
Use the Consumer Price Index to convert the 2000 salary of the executive in Exercise 18.56 to its 2007 equivalent. In exercise An executive’s salary increased from $95,000 to $130,000 between 2000 and 2007, but the Consumer Price Index went from 172.2 to 207.3 during this time span.
The Producer Price Index values for plumbing fixtures and brass fittings from 2002 through 2007 are shown here. Convert the index numbers so that the base period will be 2002 instead of 1982.
Fit a linear trend equation to the following data describing the number of active U.S. Army personnel from 2001 through 2007. What is the trend estimate for 2015?
Fit a linear trend equation to these data showing the value of shipments of food products in billions of dollars. What is the trend estimate for 2015?
Given the time series in Exercise 18.59, and using exponential smoothing with Î± = 0.7, what would have been the forecast for 2008?In exercise
SUBWAY has grown to include more than 31,000 restaurants worldwide since they opened their first one in 1965. The accompanying data show the number of SUBWAY restaurants worldwide from 1985 through 2002. Fit a quadratic equation to these data and estimate the number of SUBWAY restaurants worldwide
SUBWAY has grown to include more than 31,000 restaurants worldwide since they opened their first one in 1965. The accompanying data show the number of SUBWAY restaurants worldwide from 1985 through 2002. Fit a quadratic equation to these data and estimate the number of SUBWAY restaurants worldwide
Given the time series in Exercise 18.61, and using exponential smoothing with Î± = 0.8, what would have been the forecast for 2003?In exercise
From 2001 through 2007, average monthly cable TV bills were as shown here. Year Average Bill 2001...... $32.87 2002........ 34.71 2003........ 36.59 2004........ 38.14 2005........ 39.63 2006........ 41.17 2007........ 42.72 a. Fit a linear trend equation to the time series. Using this equation,
The annual number of international visitors to the United States from 2000 through 2007 is shown here. Year Visitors (millions) 2000........ 50.9 2001........ 44.9 2002........ 41.9 2003........ 41.2 2004........ 46.1 2005........ 49.4 2006........ 51.0 2007........ 56.0 a. Fit a linear trend
The following data show U.S. retail sales of canoes from 1991 through 2008, with data in thousands of boats.a. Construct a graph of the time series. Does the overall trend appear to be upward or downward? b. Construct a three-year centered moving average for this series. c. Using the constant
Given the time series in Exercise 18.65, and using exponential smoothing with Î± = 0.5, what would have been the forecast for 2009?In exercise
The following data are quarterly sales for the J. C. Penney Company for 2000 through 2002. Determine the quarterly seasonal indexes, then use these indexes to deseasonalize the original data.
Construct three-period and four-period centered moving averages for the quarterly J. C. Penney sales in Exercise 18.67. Are there any other retailing companies for whom a four-period moving average might have such a great effect on smoothing quarterly sales data? If so, give a real or hypothetical
The following data describe quarterly residential natural gas sales from 2005 through 2008. Determine the quarterly seasonal indexes, then use these indexes to deseasonalize the original data.
U.S. cellular phone subscribership has been reported as shown here for the 1996€“2007 period.a. Fit a linear trend equation to the time series. Using this equation, determine the trend estimate for 2013. b. Fit a quadratic equation to the time series, then use the equation to determine
Construct four-period and five-period centered moving averages for the quarterly residential gas sales in Exercise 18.69. Are there any other energy industries for whom a four-period moving average might have such a great effect on smoothing quarterly sales data? If so, give a real or hypothetical
The Walt Disney Company has reported the following quarterly revenues (in billions of dollars) for its Parks & Resorts operating segment for fiscal years 1998 through 2002. Determine the quarterly seasonal indexes, then use these indexes to deseasonalize the original data.
Construct four-period and five-period centered moving averages for the quarterly revenues in Exercise 18.71. Are there any other entertainment or recreation companies for whom a four-period moving average might have such a great effect on smoothing quarterly revenue data? If so, give a real or
The actual number of help-wanted ads in a local newspaper was 1682, 1963, 2451, and 3205 for quarters I through IV, respectively, of the preceding year. The corresponding deseasonalized values are 2320, 2362, 2205, and 2414, respectively. Based on this information, what seasonal index is associated
The trend equation ŷ = 2050 + 12x has been developed for the number of vehicles using the ferry service at a national seashore each year. (The years have been coded so that 1997 corresponds to x = 1.) If the seasonal indexes for quarters I through IV are 55.0, 130.0, 145.0, and 70.0, respectively,
The trend equation ŷ = 150 + 12x + 0.01x2 has been developed for annual unit sales of a filtering system component used by municipal water authorities. The years have been coded so that 2001 corresponds to x = 1. If the seasonal indexes for quarters I through IV are 85.0, 110.0, 125.0, and 80.0,
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reports the following prices for regular unleaded gasoline in Germany from 2003 through 2008.For the price data given here: a. Fit a linear trend equation to the time series. Using this equation, determine the trend estimate for 2014. b. Fit a quadratic
Ford Motor Company reports the average labor cost per hour (earnings plus benefits) for 1993€“2002. Fit a quadratic trend equation to the data, fit a linear trend equation to the data, and then use the MSE criterion to determine which equation is the better fit.
A Caribbean cruise line booked the number of passengers (in thousands) described below for each quarter from 2005 through 2009.a. Combining the quarterly bookings for each year, fit a linear trend equation and forecast the number of bookings for 2013. b. Determine the seasonal indexes and break the
Use the seasonal indexes obtained in Exercise 18.78 to generate a deseasonalized series of quarterly bookings for those data.In exercise
From 2000 through 2007, the value of U.S. exports to Mexico was as shown below. Data are in billions of dollars.a. Fit a linear trend equation to the time series. Using this equation, determine the trend estimate for 2015. b. Fit a quadratic equation to the time series, then use the equation to
Monthly loan applications for a local bank from 2006 through 2009 were as shown in the table.a. Combining the monthly applications for each year, fit a linear trend equation and forecast the number of applications for 2012. b. Determine the seasonal indexes and break the 2012 forecast in part (a)
During a summer visit to Cancun, Mexico, you stay in an air-conditioned room. Getting ready to leave your room for the beach, you put on your sunglasses. The minute you step outside, your sunglasses fog up. Why?
Apply the Durbin-Watson test and the 0.05 level of significance in examining the data series in Exercise 18.65 for positive autocorrelation. Based on your conclusion, comment on the appropriateness of the linear regression model for these data.In exercise
Apply the Durbin-Watson test and the 0.05 level of significance in examining the data series in Exercise 18.61 for positive autocorrelation. Based on your conclusion, comment on the appropriateness of the linear regression model for these data.In exercise
The Producer Price Index for finished consumer goods from 1980 through 2007 is in file XR18084, with 1982 = 100 and 1980 coded as t = 1. Construct a first order autoregressive forecasting equation for these data, calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the fit of the forecast values to the
The Consumer Price Index from 1961 through 2007 is in file XR18085, with 1982–1984 = 100 and 1961 coded as t = 1. Construct a first-order autoregressive forecasting equation for these data, calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the fit of the forecast values to the actual values, then
Repeat Exercise 18.85, but for a second-order autoregressive forecasting equation. Compare the MAD values for forecasts generated by the two equations and indicate which one is the better fit to these data. Repeat Exercise The Consumer Price Index from 1961 through 2007 is in file XR18085, with
From 1996 to 2007, the median weekly earnings of workers represented by unions went from $610 to $857, and the Consumer Price Index (1982–1984 = 100) went from 156.9 to 207.3. What was the percentage increase or decrease in real wages for these workers?
Convert each of the following indexes so that the new base period will be 2004.
The following data show residential and commercial natural gas consumption (quadrillion Btu) from 1992 through 2007.a. Construct a graph of the time series, then superimpose a three-year centered moving average over the original series. b. Superimpose a five-year centered moving average over the
Negotiations are taking place for the next labor agreement between Thorndike Sports Equipment and its manufacturing employees. The company and the union have agreed to consider linking hourly wages to the predicted Consumer Price Index (CPI) for each of the four years of the new contract. The
What are the differences among risk, uncertainty, and ignorance? Into which category of decision situation do most business decisions fall?
Three different designs are being considered for a new electronics product, and profits will depend on the combination of product design and market condition. The following payoff table summarizes the decision situation, with amounts in millions of dollars. What decision will be made using the
For each of the following, indicate whether the behavior represents the maximin criterion or the maximax criterion. Explain your reasoning. a. A trucker is behind schedule and knows he is approaching an area where police radar is often encountered, but he continues driving at 15 mph over the speed
When Fred takes the direct route to work, he gets there in 30 minutes if no train is at the railroad crossing. When a train is using the crossing, his travel time is 15 minutes longer. His alternative is a route that takes 40 minutes to travel, but has no traffic signals or other delays. Assuming
An antique collector is shipping $50,000 worth of items from Europe to America and must decide whether to insure the shipment for its full value. An insurance firm will provide this protection for a fee of $1000. What will be the collector’s decision if she uses the maximin criterion? The maximax
An auto manufacturer has preliminary plans to introduce a new diesel engine capable of extremely high fuel economy. The success of the engine depends on whether the U.S. Envi ronmental Protection Agency goes ahead with stringent particulate emission limits that are scheduled for the coming model
A financial institution is evaluating the loan application of an entrepreneur who has come up with a revolutionary product for which he needs developmental funding. The entrepreneur has practically no assets for collateral, but offers the institution a portion of the profits if the product is
In Exercise 19.4, if the probability that his return will be audited is 0.1, which alternative will the consultant choose if he maximizes expected monetary value? What is the most he should be willing to pay for more information regarding his likelihood of being audited? In exercise A management
In Exercise 19.9, assume that the team has a 0.6 probability of winning, a 0.3 probability of losing, and a 0.1 probability for a tie game. Which alternative should Dave select if he wishes to maximize his expected payoff, and what is the expected value of perfect information?In exercise
In Exercise 19.10, the probabilities for the three market conditions are estimated as 0.1, 0.6, and 0.3, respectively. Which design should be selected in order to maximize the firm€™s expected profit? What is the most the firm should be willing to pay for a research study designed to
What is meant when we say that the states of nature in the payoff table must be mutually exclusive and exhaustive?
For the following payoff table, determine the expected value of perfect information. Does the result seem unusual? If so, why did this occur?
In Exercise 19.12, there is a 0.1 chance that a train will be using the railroad crossing. Given this information, which route should Fred select, and what is the expected number of minutes his trip will require? What is the expected number of minutes Fred would save if he could predict with
In Exercise 19.13, if x is the probability that the shipment is lost, for what value of x will the alternatives have the same EMV? Assuming this value for x, what is the expected value of perfect information? In exercise An antique collector is shipping $50,000 worth of items from Europe to America
In business research, it’s extremely rare that any study will provide a perfect assessment of the future. Why then should we bother determining the expected value of perfect information when such information is practically never available?
In what way are the minimax regret criterion and the expected opportunity loss (EOL) criterion similar? In what ways do they differ?
An investor intends to purchase stock in one of three companies. Company A is very sensitive to the overall national economy, company C is relatively insensitive to the economic environment, and company B is about average. The investor has constructed the following payoff table for his profit, in
In Exercise 19.10, with the probabilities for the three market conditions estimated as 0.1, 0.6, and 0.3, respectively, what is the expected opportunity loss associated with each of the three decision alternatives? In what way is the lowest of these expected opportunity losses related to the
In Exercise 19.12, with a probability of 0.1 that a train will be using the crossing, compute the expected opportunity loss for each of Fred’s alternatives. Explain the meaning of the EOL for each alternative. In exercise When Fred takes the direct route to work, he gets there in 30 minutes if no
A newsstand manager must decide how many daily papers to stock. Past experience has shown that demand can be approximated by a normal distribution with a mean of 400 papers and a standard deviation of 80 papers. The manager pays 30 cents for each paper, sells it for 50 cents, and any papers not
The manager of a fish market pays 80 cents each for cod and sells them for $1.50 each. Fish left over at the end of the day are discarded. The daily demand can be approximated by a normal distribution having a mean of 300 and a standard deviation of 50. To maximize his expected profit, how many cod
The manager of a small local airport must extend a runway if business jets are to be accommodated. However, the airport is practically surrounded by a suburban housing development, and residents are already complaining to the city council about the volume and noise of existing air traffic at the
Exercise 19.29, how many cod should be purchased if leftover fish can be sold to a fertilizer company for 30 cents each? In exercise The manager of a fish market pays 80 cents each for cod and sells them for $1.50 each. Fish left over at the end of the day are discarded. The daily demand can be
An athletic director must order football programs well in advance of game day. She pays $1.00 for each program, and the selling price to fans is $5.00. Programs not sold at the game can be sold to the college bookstore for $0.30 each. Demand at the game is normally distributed, with μ = 3000 and
Repeat Exercise 19.31, under the assumption that the bookstore manager has refused to purchase unsold programs for future games. Repeat exercise An athletic director must order football programs well in advance of game day. She pays $1.00 for each program, and the selling price to fans is $5.00.
For a given perishable product, a retailer pays $5 for each unit, then sells them for $10 each. At the end of the day, units not sold at the store are disposed of, and the retailer receives just $1 for each. Given the following probability distribution describing daily demand, how many units should
Dennis Dunkwright is a former NBA player and free spirit whose face and unusual antics are well known to young Americans across the land. A marketer of athletic shoes is considering the possibility of retaining Dennis to appear in a series of high-profile television ads over the coming fiscal year.
In Exercise 19.34, what strategy would the company select if it were using the maximin criterion? The maximax criterion? The minimax regret criterion? In exercise 19.34 Dennis Dunkwright is a former NBA player and free spirit whose face and unusual antics are well known to young Americans across
An investor is trying to decide between two promising technology stocks to round out his portfolio. The remainder of his portfolio consists of relatively conservative companies and will not enter into his decision as to which technology company will be selected. DiskWorth is a well-established
In Exercise 19.36, which company would the investor select if it were using the maximin criterion? The maximax criterion? The minimax regret criterion? In exercise An investor is trying to decide between two promising technology stocks to round out his portfolio. The remainder of his portfolio
A ski resort operator must decide before the winter season whether he will lease a snow-making machine. If he has no machine, he will make $20,000 if the winter is mild, $30,000 if it is typical, and $50,000 if the winter is severe. If he decides to lease the machine, his profits for these
In Exercise 19.38, the operator says that he has no idea regarding probabilities for the various weather conditions for the coming winter. What are some other criteria by which he might reach a decision, and what decision would be reached using each of them? In exercise A ski resort operator must
A management consultant, unable to locate receipts or records for several business trips during the past year, makes some rough estimates of these expenditures and considers claiming them as business expenses on his income tax form. If he makes the claims and is not audited, he will owe $12,000 in
Having been injured while trying to use his rotary lawn mower as a snowblower, a consumer has sued the company and is offered the chance to settle out of court. If the case goes to trial, the jury could award him either nothing or a large amount in damages. Construct a payoff table for this
A Florida orange grower is considering the installation of a heating system to protect his crop in the event of frost during the coming winter. What would be the rows and columns of a payoff table applicable to this decision?
For Exercise 19.4, which decision alternative will be selected if the consultant uses the maximin criterion? The maximax criterion? The minimax regret criterion? In exercise A management consultant, unable to locate receipts or records for several business trips during the past year, makes some
Dave€™s local college football team is playing for the national championship in next month€™s bowl game, and he€™s thinking about having €œWe€™re number one€ T-shirts imprinted in honor of the team. It€™s too late to get the
For several years, Thorndike Sports Equipment has been one of the suppliers of refreshments to the Titans of Tennis national tournament. Luke Thorndike doesn’t really like to call the company’s product a “refreshment,” since it’s been scientifically designed to replenish the fluids and
Given that a production process may experience both random and assignable variation, for which type of variation is the source generally easier to identify and eliminate? Why?
What are the major phases involved in the Six Sigma quality system?

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