Patrick’s luck had changed overnight—but not his skill at mathematical reasoning. The day after graduating from college he used the $20 that his grandmother had given him as a graduation gift to buy a lottery ticket. He knew that his chances of winning the lottery were extremely low and it probably was not a good way to spend this money. But he also remembered from the class he took in management science that bad decisions sometimes result in good outcomes. So he said to himself, “What the heck? Maybe this bad decision will be the one with a good outcome.” And with that thought, he bought his lottery ticket.
The next day Patrick pulled the crumpled lottery ticket out of the back pocket of his blue jeans and tried to compare his numbers to the winning numbers printed in the paper. When his eyes finally came into focus on the numbers they also just about popped out of his head. He had a winning ticket! In the ensuing days he learned that his share of the jackpot would give him a lump sum payout of about $500,000 after taxes. He knew what he was going to do with part of the money: buy a new car, pay off his college loans, and send his grandmother on an all-expenses-paid trip to Hawaii. But he also knew that he couldn’t continue to hope for good outcomes to arise from more bad decisions. So he decided to take half of his winnings and invest it for his retirement.

So what do you think? Who is right, Josh or Peyton? And more important, why?