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business statistics a first course

Introduction To Business Statistics 7th Edition Ronald M. Weiers - Solutions

Differentiate between the traditional and the Taguchi approaches to deviations from a target dimension or measurement.
What is a “check sheet,” and what is its role in total quality management?
What is the “80y20” rule, and how does it apply to total quality management?
What is a cause-and-effect diagram, and what role can it play in total quality management?
What is a process flow chart, and how can it contribute to the goals of total quality management?
What two elements are necessary for worker empowerment to be a successful tool in total quality management?
What is competitive benchmarking, and how can it be used?
What is process capability, and how can its presence be ascertained?
What is a quality audit, and for what purposes might one be performed?
What are the major phases involved in the Six Sigma quality system?
What is the basic difference between total quality management and the traditional approach to quality management?
Contrast the concepts of defect prevention and defect detection as they might apply to each of the following“defects” in society:a. automobile accidentsb. juvenile delinquencyc. alcoholism
Differentiate between statistical process control and acceptance sampling. What is the purpose of each?
Differentiate between conformance and nonconformance in product quality. What are some of the costs associated with each?
Given that a production process may experience both random and assignable variation, for which type of variation is the source generally easier to identify and eliminate? Why?
A driver in the Indianapolis 500 auto race has the lead but is nearly out of fuel with eight laps remaining in the race. The second-place car is just 10 seconds behind and has plenty of fuel. The driver in the lead car elects to try for the finish line without making a fuel stop. Does this behavior
In Exercise 19.38, the operator says that he has no idea regarding probabilities for the various weather conditions for the coming winter. What are some other criteria by which he might reach a decision, and what decision would be reached using each of them?
For Exercise 19.29, how many cod should be purchased if leftover fish can be sold to a fertilizer company for 30 cents each?
The manager of a fish market pays 80 cents each for cod and sells them for $1.50 each. Fish left over at the end of the day are discarded. The daily demand can be approximated by a normal distribution having a mean of 300 and a standard deviation of 50. To maximize his expected profit, how many cod
A newsstand manager must decide how many daily papers to stock. Past experience has shown that demand can be approximated by a normal distribution with a mean of 400 papers and a standard deviation of 80 papers. The manager pays 30 cents for each paper, sells it for 50 cents, and any papers not
In what way are the minimax regret criterion and the expected opportunity loss (EOL) criterion similar? In what ways do they differ?
In business research, it’s extremely rare that any study will provide a perfect assessment of the future.Why then should we bother determining the expected value of perfect information when such information is practically never available?
In Exercise 19.13, if x is the probability that the shipment is lost, for what value of x will the alternatives have the same EMV? Assuming this value for x, what is the expected value of perfect information?
In Exercise 19.12, there is a 0.1 chance that a train will be using the railroad crossing. Given this information, which route should Fred select, and what is the expected number of minutes his trip will require?What is the expected number of minutes Fred would save if he could predict with
For the following payoff table, determine the expected value of perfect information. Does the result seem unusual? If so, why did this occur? Alternative A Alternative B State of Nature 1 (0.6) $80 II (0.4) $30 $12 $20
In Exercise 19.10, the probabilities for the three market conditions are estimated as 0.1, 0.6, and 0.3, respectively. Which design should be selected in order to maximize the firm’s expected profit? What is the most the firm should be willing to pay for a research study designed to reduce its
In Exercise 19.9, assume that the team has a 0.6 probability of winning, a 0.3 probability of losing, and a 0.1 probability for a tie game. Which alternative should Dave select if he wishes to maximize his expected payoff, and what is the expected value of perfect information?
In Exercise 19.4, if the probability that his return will be audited is 0.1, which alternative will the consultant choose if he maximizes expected monetary value? What is the most he should be willing to pay for more information regarding his likelihood of being audited?
A financial institution is evaluating the loan application of an entrepreneur who has come up with a revolutionary product for which he needs developmental funding. The entrepreneur has practically no assets for collateral, but offers the institution a portion of the profits if the product is
What is the most important difference between Bayesian and non-Bayesian decision criteria?
An auto manufacturer has preliminary plans to introduce a new diesel engine capable of extremely high fuel economy. The success of the engine depends on whether the U.S. Envi ronmental Protection Agency goes ahead with stringent particulate emission limits that are scheduled for the coming model
An antique collector is shipping $50,000 worth of items from Europe to America and must decide whether to insure the shipment for its full value. An insurance firm will provide this protection for a fee of $1000.What will be the collector’s decision if she uses the maximin criterion? The maximax
For Exercise 19.4, which decision alternative will be selected if the consultant uses the maximin criterion? The maximax criterion? The minimax regret criterion?
A management consultant, unable to locate receipts or records for several business trips during the past year, makes some rough estimates of these expenditures and considers claiming them as business expenses on his income tax form. If he makes the claims and is not audited, he will owe $12,000 in
Convert each of the following indexes so that the new base period will be 2004. A B 2001 101.3 100.0 2002 100.0 102.9 2003 103.4 104.7 2004 105.6 103.2 2005 107.9 107.5 2006 110.3 126.4 2007 116.2 122.1 2008 125.3 129.0 (2002 = 100) (2001 = 100)
From 1996 to 2007, the median weekly earnings of workers represented by unions went from $610 to $857, and the Consumer Price Index (1982–1984 5 100) went from 156.9 to 207.3. What was the percentage increase or decrease in real wages for these workers? Source: World Almanac and Book of Facts
The Consumer Price Index from 1961 through 2007 is in file XR18085, with 1982–1984 5 100 and 1961 coded as t 5 1. Construct a first-order autoregressive forecasting equation for these data, calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the fit of the forecast values to the actual values, then
The Producer Price Index for finished consumer goods from 1980 through 2007 is in file XR18084, with 1982 5 100 and 1980 coded as t 5 1. Construct a firstorder autoregressive forecasting equation for these data, calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the fit of the forecast values to the
Use the seasonal indexes obtained in Exercise 18.78 to generate a deseasonalized series of quarterly bookings for those data.
A Caribbean cruise line booked the number of passengers (in thousands) described below for each quarter from 2005 through 2009.a. Combining the quarterly bookings for each year, fit a linear trend equation and forecast the number of bookings for 2013.b. Determine the seasonal indexes and break the
Ford Motor Company reports the average labor cost per hour (earnings plus benefits) for 1993–2002. Fit a quadratic trend equation to the data, fit a linear trend equation to the data, and then use the MSE criterion to determine which equation is the better fit. Year Labor Cost Year Labor Cost
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reports the following prices for regular unleaded gasoline in Germany from 2003 through 2008.For the price data given here:a. Fit a linear trend equation to the time series. Using this equation, determine the trend estimate for 2014.b. Fit a quadratic
The trend equation yˆ 5 150 1 12x 1 0.01x2 has been developed for annual unit sales of a filtering system component used by municipal water authorities. The years have been coded so that 2001 corresponds to x 5 1. If the seasonal indexes for quarters I through IV are 85.0, 110.0, 125.0, and 80.0,
The trend equation yˆ 5 2050 1 12x has been developed for the number of vehicles using the ferry service at a national seashore each year. (The years have been coded so that 1997 corresponds to x 5 1.) If the seasonal indexes for quarters I through IV are 55.0, 130.0, 145.0, and 70.0,
The actual number of help-wanted ads in a local newspaper was 1682, 1963, 2451, and 3205 for quarters I through IV, respectively, of the preceding year. The corresponding deseasonalized values are 2320, 2362, 2205, and 2414, respectively. Based on this information, what seasonal index is associated
Construct four-period and five-period centered moving averages for the quarterly revenues in Exercise 18.71.Are there any other entertainment or recreation companies for whom a four-period moving average might have such a great effect on smoothing quarterly revenue data? If so, give a real or
The Walt Disney Company has reported the following quarterly revenues (in billions of dollars) for its Parks & Resorts operating segment for fiscal years 1998 through 2002. Determine the quarterly seasonal indexes, then use these indexes to deseasonalize the original data. Quarter I II III IV
Construct four-period and five-period centered moving averages for the quarterly residential gas sales in Exercise 18.69. Are there any other energy industries for whom a four-period moving average might have such a great effect on smoothing quarterly sales data? If so, give a real or hypothetical
The following data describe quarterly residential natural gas sales from 2005 through 2008. Determine the quarterly seasonal indexes, then use these indexes to deseasonalize the original data. Residential Gas Sales (Trillions of Cubic Feet) I || III IV 2005 2329 784 353 1360 2006 2042 700 349 1277
Construct three-period and four-period centered moving averages for the quarterly J. C. Penney sales in Exercise 18.67. Are there any other retailing companies for whom a four-period moving average might have such a great effect on smoothing quarterly sales data? If so, give a real or hypothetical
The following data are quarterly sales for the J. C. Penney Company for 2000 through 2002. Determine the quarterly seasonal indexes, then use these indexes to deseasonalize the original data. Gross Sales (Billions) I II III IV 2000 $7.53 7.21 7.54 9.57 2001 7.52 7.21 7.73 9.54 2002 7.73 7.20 7.87
Given the time series in Exercise 18.65, and using exponential smoothing with 5 0.5, what would have been the forecast for 2009?
The following data show U.S. retail sales of canoes from 1991 through 2008, with data in thousands of boats.a. Construct a graph of the time series. Does the overall trend appear to be upward or downward?b. Construct a three-year centered moving average for this series.c. Using the constant 5 0.3,
The annual number of international visitors to the United States from 2000 through 2007 is shown here.a. Fit a linear trend equation to the time series. Using this equation, determine the trend estimate for 2015.b. Fit a quadratic equation to the time series, then use the equation to determine the
From 2001 through 2007, average monthly cable TV bills were as shown here.a. Fit a linear trend equation to the time series. Using this equation, determine the trend estimate for 2015.b. Fit a quadratic equation to the time series, then use the equation to determine the trend estimate for 2015.c.
Given the time series in Exercise 18.61, and using exponential smoothing with 5 0.8, what would have been the forecast for 2003?
SUBWAY has grown to include more than 31,000 restaurants worldwide since they opened their first one in 1965. The accompanying data show the number of SUBWAY restaurants worldwide from 1985 through 2002. Fit a quadratic equation to these data and estimate the number of SUBWAY restaurants worldwide
Given the time series in Exercise 18.59, and using exponential smoothing with 5 0.7, what would have been the forecast for 2008?
Fit a linear trend equation to the following data describing the number of active U.S. Army personnel from 2001 through 2007. What is the trend estimate for 2015? Year Army Personnel (thousands) 2001 481 2002 487 2003 499 2004 500 2005 493 2006 505 2007 522
The Producer Price Index values for plumbing fixtures and brass fittings from 2002 through 2007 are shown here. Convert the index numbers so that the base period will be 2002 instead of 1982. 2002 181.9 2005 197.6 2003 183.4 2006 207.2 2004 188.3 2007 220.8
Use the Consumer Price Index to convert the 2000 salary of the executive in Exercise 18.56 to its 2007 equivalent.
An executive’s salary increased from $95,000 to$130,000 between 2000 and 2007, but the Consumer Price Index went from 172.2 to 207.3 during this time span. In terms of real income, what was the percentage increase or decrease in the executive’s real earnings?
The Consumer Price Index and average annual wages in selected industries were as shown in the table.From 1990 to 2007, the average wages went up for workers in all three industries. However, which wage-earning groups fared best and worst in terms of their percentage change in spending power during
What is the Consumer Price Index and what does it reflect?
What is an index number, and what is its value for the base period?
Repeat Exercise 18.51, but for a second-order autoregressive forecasting equation. Compare the MAD values for forecasts generated by the two equations and indicate which one is the better fit to these data.
Over the past 20 years, inventory carrying costs for a large tire manufacturing facility have been as shown.Data are in thousands of dollars. Construct a first-order autoregressive forecasting equation for these data, calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the fit of the forecast values to
According to the Investment Company Institute, the number of U.S. mutual shareholder accounts (millions)were as shown in the table for years 1990 (coded as t 1) through 2007. Construct a second-order autoregressive equation and determine what the forecast would have been for 2008. t Yt Yt yt
For the shipment data listed in Exercise 18.45, construct a first-order autoregressive forecasting equation and make a forecast for period 19.
Analysis of a time series consisting of weekly visits(in thousands) to a corporate website has led to the following autoregressive forecasting equation: ˆyt 5 34.50 10.58yt21 2 0.72yt22. If there were 260 thousand visitors this week and 245 thousand last week, how many visitors would the forecast
A regression model has 2 independent variables and 16 observations, and the calculated Durbin-Watson d statistic is 2.78. What, if any, conclusion will be reached in testing for autocorrelation of the residuals with a:a. two-tail test at the 0.05 level of significance?b. test for negative
A regression model has 3 independent variables and 20 observations, and the calculated Durbin-Watson d statistic is 0.91. What, if any, conclusion will be reached in testing for autocorrelation of the residuals with a:a. two-tail test at the 0.02 level of significance?b. one-tail test for positive
The least-squares regression equation ˆy 5 15.2 110.7t has been fitted to the shipment data in the table.Calculate the Durbin-Watson d statistic and test for positive autocorrelation of the residuals at the 0.05 level of significance. Based on your conclusion, comment on the appropriateness of
The least-squares regression equation yˆ 5 98.1 1 5.0t has been fitted to the shipment data given here. Calculate the Durbin-Watson d statistic and test for positive autocorrelation of the residuals at the 0.05 level of significance.Comment on the appropriateness of using this model for this set
What is the Durbin-Watson test for autocorrelation, and how can it be useful in evaluating the relevance of a given regression model that has been fitted to a set of time series data?
When autocorrelation of the residuals is present, what effect can this have on interval estimation and significance tests regarding the regression model involved?
Using the MAD criterion, determine which one of the equations developed in Exercise 18.8 is the better fit to the data in that exercise. Repeat the evaluation, using the MSE criterion.
Using the MAD criterion, determine which one of the equations developed in Exercise 18.7 is the better fit to the data in that exercise. Repeat the evaluation, using the MSE criterion.
The following data are the number of Harley-Davidson motorcycles sold worldwide for 2003 through 2006 (thousands). Given these data and the trend equations, use the MAD criterion to determine which equation is the better fit. Repeat the evaluation, using the MSE criterion. x = y = Year Year Code
The following data are the wellhead prices for domestically produced natural gas, in dollars per thousand cubic feet, from 2001 through 2008. Given these data and the trend equations shown here, use the MAD criterion to determine which equation is the better fit. Repeat the evaluation, using the
How do the MAD and MSE criteria differ in their approach to evaluating the fit of an estimation equation to a time series?
The quarterly seasonal indexes for a firm’s electricity consumption are 115, 92, 81, and 112 for quarters I–IV. It has been forecast that electricity consumption will be 850,000 kilowatt-hours during 2014. Forecast electricity consumption for each quarter of 2014.
A firm predicts it will use 560,000 gallons of water next year. If the seasonal index of water consumption is 135 for the second quarter of the year, what is the forecast for water consumption during that quarter?
If a time series is such that sales are consistently increasing from one year to the next, will exponential smoothing tend to produce forecasts that are (a) over or (b) under the sales that are actually realized for the forecast period? Why?
For the data of Exercise 18.9, use the weighting constant 0.6 and exponential smoothing to determine the forecast for 2008.
For the data of Exercise 18.7, use the weighting constant 0.5 and exponential smoothing to determine the forecast for 2008.
The U.S. trade deficit with Canada (billions of dollars) from 2000 through 2007 is reported as shown in the table. Using exponential smoothing and the smoothing constant 0.7, what deficit would have been forecast for 2008? Source: World Almanac and Book of Facts 2009, p. 117.Year: 2000 2001
When exponential smoothing is used in fitting a curve to a time series, the approach is slightly different from its application to forecasting. Compare the appropriate formulas and point out how they differ.
Based on annual truck rentals over the years, a rental firm has developed the quadratic trend equation yˆ 450 20x 7.2x2, with x 1 for 2005. Forecast y for 2013; for 2015.
An appliance repair shop owner has fitted the quadratic trend equation yˆ 90 0.9x 3x2 to a time series of annual repair orders, with y the number of repair orders and x 1 for 2005. Forecast the number of repair orders for 2013; for 2015.
The linear trend equation ˆ y 120 4.8x has been developed, where yˆ estimated sales (thousands of dollars) and x 1 for the year 1999. What level of sales would be forecast for 2013; for 2015?
A mail-order firm has found the following seasonal indexes for the number of calls received each month. Below the seasonal indexes is the actual number of calls (thousands) per month during 2009.a. Using the seasonal indexes, deseasonalize the data for 2009.b. The president of the firm is quite
Given the data of Exercise 18.13, (a) determine the monthly seasonal indexes for January through December, then(b) use these indexes to deseasonalize the original time series.
Given the degree-day data of Exercise 18.11,(a) determine the monthly seasonal indexes for January through December, then (b) use these indexes to deseasonalize the original time series.
A major amusement park has the following number of visitors each quarter from 2005 through 2009:a. Construct the four-quarter centered moving average for these data and determine the percentages of the moving average for the quarters.b. Determine the seasonal indexes for the quarters.c. Use the
The state of Texas has reported the following quarterly gross sales for the in-state accommodation and food services industry for the years 2004–2008.a. Construct the four-quarter centered moving average for these data and determine the percentages of the moving average for the quarters.b.
The seasonal indexes for a convention center’s bookings are 83, 120, 112, and 85 for quarters 1– 4, respectively. What percentage of the center’s annual bookings tend to occur during the second quarter?
In determining seasonal indexes for the months of the year, a statistician finds the total of the “unadjusted”seasonal indexes is 1180 instead of 12 ? 100, or 1200.What correction must be made to arrive at the adjusted seasonal indexes?
For the data of Exercise 18.15:a. Fit an exponentially smoothed curve with smoothing constant 5 0.6.b. For these data, describe the appearance of the exponentially smoothed curve when the smoothing constant is 5 0.0; when 5 1.0. Why is it not useful to assign either of these extreme values?
For the data of Exercise 18.15, determine the centered moving average for N 5 2; for N 5 4.

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